Update on the South African Parliamentary Elections

South Africa has formed a government of national unity, led by the African National Congress (ANC), which won the most votes and seats in the South African parliamentary election, but short of a majority the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994, as two factions split off, one Marxist and one led by a former President convicted of corruption. The latter spinoff party had come in third, but refused to support the reelection of the current President who is of the ANC, while the centrist Democratic Alliance (DA), a pro-business party favored by whites, had finished second and the Marxists who wanted to nationalize banks and confiscate white-owned land without compensation came in fourth. The DA agreed to form a coalition government together with the fifth- and sixth-place finishers, the conservative Inkatha Freedom Party, which is backed by the Zulus, and a right-wing party supported by people of mixed race, supported the reelection of the President, and the selection of the parliamentary speaker and a deputy president (a member of the DA), and agreed on a common platform to address the serious problems facing South Africa I had posted about: low economic growth, poverty, unemployment, inflation, power outages, corruption and crime. International investors were pleased with the result. The ANC has been neutral in regard to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the DA opposes it.

Foreign Digest: France, Armenia, Ukraine and the Group of Seven Industrial Powers

France: The main French conservative party, the Republicans, expelled their leader after he announced an alliance with the far-right anti-migrant pro-Russian party that had won the most votes and seats in the EP election last weekend for the upcoming snap French parliamentary elections next month that were called by the President after his coalition’s weak showing, although a court ruled against the expulsion. The French governing coalition is made up of centrists and some center-right parties, including some former members of the Republicans. The longtime opposition to fascism by the Gaullist center-right Republicans has kept the far right from power in France and likely will be pivotal in the national parliamentary vote. France is a great power ally of the United States as a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It supports defending Ukraine against Russian aggression. The far-right opposition party was funded by Russia and opposes aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, the parties on the left are uniting to defeat the far right, dropping a communist as their candidate who had performed well in the last French parliamentary elections and taking strong stands in support of Ukraine versus Russian aggression and against Islamist terrorism against Israel. The elections are only for Parliament. The President’s term does not end until 2026. Armenia: Armenia, a former Soviet Republic, is leaving a Russian Federation-led security alliance. Armenia has turned away from Russia, the successor of the Soviet Union, and toward the West after Russian peacekeepers failed to prevent Azeri troops from overtaking Nagorno Karabakh, and a breakaway ethnic Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan, another former Soviet Republic that has clashed with Armenia over the territory ever since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. Ukraine: Ukraine has been boosted diplomatically and financially by three international organizations and groups. The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization will fund nearly $700 million for restoration of cultural sites in Ukraine that have been destroyed by Russian aggression and cultural genocide, including religious centers, historical architectural buildings, museums and monuments. The fund is backed by the United States, Canada, many European States, Georgia and Japan. The Group of Seven Industrial Powers (G-7), which includes the United States, agreed to loan Ukraine $50 billion with frozen Russian assets used as collateral. At the International Peace Summit hosted by Switzerland, the United States, the European Council, the European Union and over 80 individual States from around the world agreed to a formula for peace that upholds Ukraine’s and every States’ independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity (based on its internationally recognized borders that Russia had recognized), based on the principles of the United Nations Charter and UN resolutions condemning Russian aggression. The joint statement includes the freeing of Ukrainian civilians illegally detained and the return of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia. Russia had attempted to discourage States from attending the summit. Group of Seven Industrial Powers: The G-7 summit statement included no mention of abortion as a right in the final draft of its join statement, unlike last year. The meeting in Italy was the first attended by a Pope, as the Francis called for ethics in regard to artificial intelligence and for peace.

Update on the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections: Hungary, Italy, Bulgaria and Ireland

Hungary: The far-right anti-migrant ruling party of Hungary won less than majority of votes and seats in the European Parliamentary elections. A new center right party led by a former ruling party director won 30% to become the leading opposition party, setting up a competitive contest for the Hungarian parliamentary elections next year. The upstart party did well, despite, only being afforded minimal exposure by state-controlled media that the Hungarian Government uses to promote its policies. The self-described “illiberal” Hungarian Government has been described by the European Union as an “elected autocracy.” The ruling party, which has governed since 2010, is authoritarian and corrupt, which has caused the EU to withhold funds to Hungary. The EU also fined Hungary over $200 million last week for violating its common policy on refugees seeking asylum from persecution and violence, whom the Hungarian Government deported. Most migrants do not necessarily wish to stay in Hungary, which is not a free country, or other EU member States they first enter, but to transit elsewhere in the EU. Meanwhile, the Hungarian Government and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization worked out a deal whereby Hungary will opt-out of NATO’s defensive aid funding of Ukraine, instead of blocking the aid, for which a unanimous vote of the 30 members is required. Italy: The center-right Forza Italia (FI) party won nearly 10% of the vote in the first election since the death of its founder, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, coming in fourth place, just behind the anti-establishment populists, better than in the previous EP elections and better than the far-right anti-migrant League, which had been the party in Italy that won the most votes and seats in the last election five years ago. FI is part of the governing coalition with the League, but aligned with the ruling European People’s Party (EPP). The League had been pressuring FI to join with the far right, including the ruling party of Hungary, which was pressured out of the EPP. FI also had formed an electoral alliance for the EP elections with a moderate party that is not in the Italian Government. Bulgaria and Ireland: The pro-Russian party in fractious Bulgaria came in fourth place in the EP elections while a pro-Russian Member of the EP from Ireland was defeated.

Foreign Elections Digest: South Africa, India and the European Union

South Africa: The longtime ruling leftist party failed to win a majority for the first time since the end of apartheid thirty years ago in the South African parliamentary elections earlier this month. The ruling African National Congress, which governs with the extra-parliamentary Communist Party, won the most votes and seats, but would have to form a coalition to remain in power. A coalition government will thus have to be formed, as a government must win a vote of confidence by a simple majority in the lower house in a parliamentary system. The ANC had suffered splits that lead to the formation of two other parties, one led by a corrupt former President and one a Marxist party that wants to nationalize industries and confiscate white-owned farms without compensation. South Africa is plagued by unemployment, poverty, inflation, electrical blackouts, corruption, and crime. The centrist to center-right Democratic Alliance came in second place. As I had posted, it had formed an electoral alliance with the conservative Zulu party, Inkatha Freedom Party, both of which gained seats in South Africa’s Parliament, and two smaller parties. DA, with which the ANC has already been in discussion, is considering either abandoning the ANC to the left in the hopes of winning even more seats in the next election after the likely disaster that would occur, or forming a coalition with the ANC, at least to bloc the worst leftist policies, like nationalization and confiscation It has said it will not govern with either of the two parties that split from the ANC. The free-market DA is pro-Western and against the Russian aggression in Ukraine, unlike the ANC, which is friendly with Russia and overtly neutral about Russian aggression. The ANC could alternately try to form a coalition with the other leftwing parties, although likely not with the embittered former President’s party. But the electoral blow has weakened the leftist ruling party like never before and has left it scrambling to try to form a coalition of national unity. India: In the Indian parliamentary elections last week, a coalition of parties that includes the ruling Hindu nationalist party won a majority of votes and seats in the Parliament, but the ruling party itself fell short of a majority. I had posted that the opposition had attempted to unite around a candidate. The relatively strong showing by the leading opposition party, the center-left Congress Party, suggests it could form a coalition with former allied parties that were part of the ruling party’s electoral bloc. Despite a roaring economy, but with its side effect of inflation, the Hindu nationalist party suffers from the ethnic and religious divisions that it fosters in the diverse southern Asian State, which is the world’s most populous. The Hindu nationalist-led Indian Government has also become increasingly authoritarian since coming to power in elections in 2014. It was even implicated in a recent murder of an exiled Sikh in America. India is neutral internationally, although it has border disputes with Communist China and opposes Islamist terrorism. European Union: At the start of elections for the Parliament of the European Union, Russia began its hacking campaign to spread pro-Russia propaganda and disinformation. It favors candidates on the far left or far right sympathetic to it. Early returns today in the low-turnout elections across the EU indicate that the center-right, which currently leads a coalition with the center-left, is defeating the far left and far right by winning the most seats, although well under a majority. While the conservatives gained some seats overall, the center-left lost some seats, and the far left lost even more. The far right gained seats, winning the most votes and seats in some States in the 27-member organization, but not as many overall as expected while Europe is in economic recovery from the Covid-19 Pandemic, and as the center-right has been addressing the issue of migration, and as the conservatives maintain support for Ukraine against Russian aggression and offer a more pro-European but reformist platform. Thus, incumbency was generally not the liability it was feared to be in the EU parliamentary elections for ruling parties, despite inflation that is still not reduced as much as in America and the concerns about migration, as center-right parties that are currently leading governments of member States fared well, while the ruling center-left party lost in Germany to the conservatives (despite gains by the far right) and the ruling centrist party in France lost to the far right. One exception was the loss by the ruling center-right party to the far right in Austria, where the far right has been competitive in elections the last few years, despite its ties to Russia. Thus, the ruling conservatives gained overall, even while the far right made gains on their flank, and generally even when in power, in contrast to other ruling parties in power.

Foreign Digest: Venezuela, Colombia, Communist China, Ukraine and Russia

Venezuela: Venezuela’s ruling Socialist regime rejected neighboring Colombia’s offer of sending election observers for the upcoming Venezuelan presidential elections next moth. I had posted that the dictatorship had rejected European Union observers. The Socialists have ruled since 2000 after being elected and then becoming authoritarian, holding hundreds of pollitical prisoners, and not permitting fully free and independent elections. The opposition has united around a former ambassador after their nominee, who was leading in the polls, was barred from holding office. Colombia: There has been a spike in violence from Marxist narco-terrorists and guerillas in Colombia as the Colombian Government has entered into peace talks with the last remaining factions or splinter groups. The war in the South American State has lasted since 1965 and killed tens of thousands of people. The guerillas have funneled the cocaine that enters into America. Communist China: Communist China earlier this month sentenced Hong Kong opposition officials to prison for peacefully protesting Peking’s violation of its promise to let the city-state keep its autonomy and liberty, thereby completing its purge of the opposition that had campaigned for local offices in the territory that is controlled by a Chinese-appointed executive and legislative majority. The territory had reverted to Chinese control in 1997 from the United Kingdom after China made its promise, but human rights are no longer respected as all dissent is squelched and thus meaningful free and fair elections no longer held, as any opposition candidates who manage to win their elections are precluded from taking their seats, or exercise no power if they do. Ukraine and Russia: Ukrainian special forces have reportedly been fighting Kremlin-backed Russian mercenaries this year in Syria and Sudan, during the Russian aggression against their homeland, backing rebels against the tyrannical Syrian regime of Bashar Assad against rebels. In the Syrian Civil War, which began as a popular uprising in 2011 for liberty and representative government, well over half a million people have been killed and millions have become refugees. The Russian Federation and Iran back Assad, a state sponsor of terrorism, as does Hezbollah, the Iranian-sponsored Lebanese Shi’ite organization. The United States backs certain Syrian rebels against Islamist terrorists, thereby helping the Kurds, for example, to enjoy autonomy. Israel frequently strikes Hezbollah and Iranian forces. The Ukrainian strategy appears to be to confront the malign influence of Russia around the world. In a similar manner, many Russians, Belarusians, and Georgians, in addition to Americans and other Westerners and others from the former Soviet Union or former Soviet Satellites, have volunteered to fight to defend Ukraine. The Russian tyrant, Vladimir Putin, is an ex-Soviet intelligence officer who is trying to restore the Soviet Empire.

Bipartisan House Rejection of a Trumpist Bill to Defund NATO Fund for American Troops

The United States House of Representatives overwhelmingly rejected a bill sponsored by a Trumpist isolationist Republican to defund a $400 million fund for American troops based in Europe as a contingent of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the defensive pact that has deterred aggression against Western Europe and America since 1949. Donald Trump and his supporters misrepresent NATO as an organization into which its 30 members pay dues, but there is only minimal shared funding for its administration, as each member State funds its own defense, with a goal of spending at least 2% of their gross domestic product, which an increasing number of members meet in the face of Russian aggression. Over three quarters of Republicans opposed the bill, as did all Democrats. The attempt came shortly before the eightieth anniversary of the Allied Invasion of Normandy and shortly after the 75th anniversary of the most successful defensive pact in history. In my last post, I noted the parallel between the allied effort led by the U.S. against fascist aggression in Europe by the Axis Powers and the American-led allied effort, including through NATO, to defend Ukraine with defensive aid, training, and intelligence-sharing against Russian aggression. The Russian Federation, the successor state to the Soviet Union, against which NATO was formed, is currently led by tyrant Vladimir Putin, an ex-Soviet intelligence officer who is trying to restore the Soviet/Russian Empire. Trump and some of his supporters are pro-Putin. Although the rejection by most Republicans of the bill is satisfactory, the bill and vote nonetheless demonstrate the shifting away from the GOP’s traditional pro-security stance and an increasing shift toward it by the Democratic Party.

Eightieth Anniversary of the Allied Invasion of Normandy, France During the Second World War

Today, we commemorate the eightieth anniversary of the Allied Invasion of Normandy, France that began on “D-Day” June 6, 1944 to liberate France from the Nazi Germans during the Second World War. The landing by the many Allied Powers, known as the “United Nations,” was the largest military landing in history, was led by the United States, against Germany, which led the Axis Powers, which were totalitarian States that were committing aggression around the globe. The Allied invasion, which was the beginning of the end of the war, opened a new front against the Axis. Thousands of Allied soldiers were killed on the first day and many more would sacrifice their lives on the Allied advance through France to Germany to win the war within a year and save the world from nationalist totalitarianism. The United States and many of its allies would afterward keep the peace through a strong defense against aggression, including through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a defense pact, particularly against the increased threat of International Communism that arose from the Soviet Union and the satellite States it established in Eastern Europe after defeating the Axis there. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the Atlantic Alliance next helped to defend the world against Islamist terrorism. But now the Soviet successor state of Russia is again imperialist and led by a tyrannical ex-Soviet intelligence officer intent on reforming the Soviet Union, and who is currently committing aggression against a former Soviet Republic, Ukraine, in an obvious parallel to the threat posed to the world by the Axis Powers. NATO, which has grown in the face of the resurgent Russian threat, is as strong and united and needed as ever. The most successful defensive pact in history is inspired today by the example of the sacrifice of the troops on D-Day who helped save the world against the vital threat to its flank of an advancing superpower led by an imperialist tyrant. The United States, NATO and all its allies are obligated to keep the peace and freedom that was hard-won on the beaches of Normandy and on every battlefield of the Second World War by meeting the challenge of the current danger so that the sacrifice of eighty years ago will not have been in vain and Americans and citizens of its allies in Europe and around the world may continue to enjoy peace and freedom.