Foreign Elections Digest: South Africa, India and the European Union

South Africa: The longtime ruling leftist party failed to win a majority for the first time since the end of apartheid thirty years ago in the South African parliamentary elections earlier this month. The ruling African National Congress, which governs with the extra-parliamentary Communist Party, won the most votes and seats, but would have to form a coalition to remain in power. A coalition government will thus have to be formed, as a government must win a vote of confidence by a simple majority in the lower house in a parliamentary system. The ANC had suffered splits that lead to the formation of two other parties, one led by a corrupt former President and one a Marxist party that wants to nationalize industries and confiscate white-owned farms without compensation. South Africa is plagued by unemployment, poverty, inflation, electrical blackouts, corruption, and crime. The centrist to center-right Democratic Alliance came in second place. As I had posted, it had formed an electoral alliance with the conservative Zulu party, Inkatha Freedom Party, both of which gained seats in South Africa’s Parliament, and two smaller parties. DA, with which the ANC has already been in discussion, is considering either abandoning the ANC to the left in the hopes of winning even more seats in the next election after the likely disaster that would occur, or forming a coalition with the ANC, at least to bloc the worst leftist policies, like nationalization and confiscation It has said it will not govern with either of the two parties that split from the ANC. The free-market DA is pro-Western and against the Russian aggression in Ukraine, unlike the ANC, which is friendly with Russia and overtly neutral about Russian aggression. The ANC could alternately try to form a coalition with the other leftwing parties, although likely not with the embittered former President’s party. But the electoral blow has weakened the leftist ruling party like never before and has left it scrambling to try to form a coalition of national unity. India: In the Indian parliamentary elections last week, a coalition of parties that includes the ruling Hindu nationalist party won a majority of votes and seats in the Parliament, but the ruling party itself fell short of a majority. I had posted that the opposition had attempted to unite around a candidate. The relatively strong showing by the leading opposition party, the center-left Congress Party, suggests it could form a coalition with former allied parties that were part of the ruling party’s electoral bloc. Despite a roaring economy, but with its side effect of inflation, the Hindu nationalist party suffers from the ethnic and religious divisions that it fosters in the diverse southern Asian State, which is the world’s most populous. The Hindu nationalist-led Indian Government has also become increasingly authoritarian since coming to power in elections in 2014. It was even implicated in a recent murder of an exiled Sikh in America. India is neutral internationally, although it has border disputes with Communist China and opposes Islamist terrorism. European Union: At the start of elections for the Parliament of the European Union, Russia began its hacking campaign to spread pro-Russia propaganda and disinformation. It favors candidates on the far left or far right sympathetic to it. Early returns today in the low-turnout elections across the EU indicate that the center-right, which currently leads a coalition with the center-left, is defeating the far left and far right by winning the most seats, although well under a majority. While the conservatives gained some seats overall, the center-left lost some seats, and the far left lost even more. The far right gained seats, winning the most votes and seats in some States in the 27-member organization, but not as many overall as expected while Europe is in economic recovery from the Covid-19 Pandemic, and as the center-right has been addressing the issue of migration, and as the conservatives maintain support for Ukraine against Russian aggression and offer a more pro-European but reformist platform. Thus, incumbency was generally not the liability it was feared to be in the EU parliamentary elections for ruling parties, despite inflation that is still not reduced as much as in America and the concerns about migration, as center-right parties that are currently leading governments of member States fared well, while the ruling center-left party lost in Germany to the conservatives (despite gains by the far right) and the ruling centrist party in France lost to the far right. One exception was the loss by the ruling center-right party to the far right in Austria, where the far right has been competitive in elections the last few years, despite its ties to Russia. Thus, the ruling conservatives gained overall, even while the far right made gains on their flank, and generally even when in power, in contrast to other ruling parties in power.