Sunday, December 30, 2018

Foreign Digest: Italy, Syria, Sudan


Italy
            The European Union accepted the populist Italian Government’s budget for fiscal year 2019 for the Italian Republic last week.  The Government had wanted to exceed the EU’s limit for a budget deficit of 2% of gross domestic product by .4 with a spending spree, but made other cuts to the budget, thereby paring down the excess to .04% while maintaining its budget priorities.  The Italian Parliament approved the budget this weekend.  The EU had found the budget non-compliant and was prepared to invoke punitive measures.  Italy, with the eighth largest economy in the world (third in the eurozone) has a national debt of over $2.3 trillion, one of the largest in the world in terms of GDP.  The Italian debt is slightly over 100% of Italy’s GDP. 

Syria
            Israel continues to strike threatening targets, including Iranian forces, in SyriaSyria is in civil war because of a rebellion by non-Islamist Arab Muslims, as well as Kurds and Islamist Arabs, against the tyrannical regime of Bashar Assad.  Assad is backed by Iran, Russia and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shi’ite terrorists.  The United States leads an international coalition of Western and Arab forces against the “Islamic State” and al-Qaeda Islamist terrorists, but is withdrawing before the last bit of territory is retaken from the Islamic State.  The Islamic State, an offshoot of al-Qaeda, proclaimed a caliphate in Iraq and Syria and has attracted support from other Islamists throughout the world, but is being deprived of all of its territory, which is necessary in order to prove it is not divinely favored and to prevent it from regaining a safe haven from which to train and launch more attacks.  Meanwhile, Turkey intervenes against Kurds in Syria and Iraq.

Sudan
           There have been protests in Sudan since mid-December, first about the cost of living, and now against the tyrannical Sudanese leader.  There were demonstrations in several cities in Sudan, in addition to the capital.

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Happy Feast of the Nativity of the King of Kings


           Merry Christmas!  This Feast of the Nativity of Jesus, let us remember in particular that it is Christ who is the King of Kings and Lord of Lords and how the Son of God became man and came into the world in the most humble way to love and serve.

Sunday, December 16, 2018

European Union Digest: EU Disinformation Countermeasures, Italy and the United Kingdom


European Union disinformation countermeasures
            The European Union is increasing its measures against disinformation, including against anti-vaccination propaganda.  Populists on both the far left and the far right oppose mandatory vaccinations for various reasons.  The authoritarian Russian Federation regime of Vladimir Putin exploits this opportunity to oppose vaccinations to weaken the West.

Italy 
The populist Italian Government recently sacked a pro-vaccination national health board.  The Government had tried to undermine mandatory vaccinations for school students, but had to retreat from its plan in the face of difficulties in the implementation and criticism from healthcare professionals and international organizations.

            The EU last week encouraged the Italian Government to decide soon on whether to complete the high-speed train from Turin to Lyon, France and warned that the Italian Republic may have to return funds to the EU if it decides not to proceed.  The train is opposed by anarchists, socialists and environmentalists.

            In addition to EU bodies, human rights organizations criticized the Italian Government last week for violating the human rights of migrants.

The EU and Italy continue to negotiate over the budget that exceeds EU rules for spending.

A public opinion survey revealed that Italians are fearful and bitter, which causes many of them to seek an authoritarian.  The more economically distressed they are, the more nationalist and resentful toward migrants and refugees. The migration crisis has caused division between Italy and the EU.

United Kingdom: update on leaving the EU
            The Conservative-led Government of the United Kingdom last week withdrew from Parliament its proposed accord with the European Union for leaving that organization.  Some Tories opposed particularly the provisions in regard to the border between the British Province Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, an EU-member.  However, both the EU and the Government insist that no better agreement can be obtained.  Therefore, there is uncertainty over whether the UK will leave the EU or leave without any agreement on issues such as the movement of people, trade, fisheries and aviation by March, the time when the UK will no longer be part of the EU, with or without any agreement, and also whether the Government may fall and new parliamentary elections be held.  The Prime Minister is attempting to obtain clarifications of the agreement.  
           The Premier survived a confidence vote last week for the Conservative Party leadership after the withdrawal of her agreement with the EU, but she announced that she would not lead the party in the next-scheduled elections.

Foreign Digest: Hungary, Bolivia, Nicaragua and Thailand


Hungary
            The far-right illiberal Hungarian Government recently forced the Central European University, a U.S. registered and accredited school, to leave Hungary.  It also blocked a meeting between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, of which it is a member, and Ukraine, despite the recent Russian naval attack on the latter, and refused to extradite two suspected Russian arms dealers to the U.S., handing them over to Russia instead.  Hungary continues to become increasingly authoritarian, as administrative disputes were removed last week from the jurisdiction of the judiciary and placed with the executive branch.  There have been protests in favor of liberty and the rule of law.

Bolivia
            There were recent protests against the President of Bolivia for violating the constitutional term limits because the national election commission is permitting him to stand for reelection, despite the rejection in 2016 of a referendum to amend the constitution to eliminate term limits.  The Catholic Church has led the objections to electing a president for life, in the model of Venezuela’s late Socialist tyrant Hugh Chavez.

Nicaragua
            The Marxist Sandinista regime continues to become increasingly authoritarian.  Last week, it barred the operation of non-governmental organizations that were critical of the government and raided and occupied the offices of the opposition center-right media.  Meanwhile, the United States Congress unanimously passed a bill to impose economic sanctions on Sandinista regime officials who commit human rights violations.

Thailand
           Thailand’s ruling military junta has announced new elections in February of 2019 for the first time in four years after seizing power after a democratic impasse.

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

George H.W. Bush, In Memoriam


George Herbert Walker Bush died at age 94 in Texas at the end of last month.  The moderately conservative Republican capped a long career of public service by being elected President of the United States and then becoming the patriarch of a great political dynasty. 

As Commander in Chief, Bush skillfully negotiated the peaceful end of the Cold War on favorable terms to the West and rejected the first major post-Cold War challenge to international order, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait by liberating the latter.

Born in Massachusetts in 1924, Bush lived in Connecticut.  He enlisted in the Navy in the Second World War, at one point the branch’s youngest pilot.  Bush, who flew 58 missions in the Pacific Theater in a torpedo bomber before being shot down and rescued at sea, was highly decorated for his service.  His marriage to Barbara Pierce in 1945 lasted 73 years until her death in April of this year, the longest of any presidential couple.  After the war, Bush graduated from Yale University and then worked in the oil business in Texas

Starting in 1966, when Bush was elected U.S. Representative as a Republican, he began a political career that included a series of posts in which he was appointed by fellow GOP Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford: Envoy to Communist China, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, where he was credited for boosting morale and for much-needed reforms, and Ambassador to the United Nations.  In between, Nixon appointed him Chairman of the Republican National Committee, where he was loyal to Richard Nixon during the Watergate scandal, but ultimately urged the President’s resignation.  After a failed bid for the GOP presidential nomination in 1980, Republican nominee Ronald Reagan asked Bush to be his running mate.  After winning the vice presidential nomination, Bush was elected Vice President, serving a full eight years after being reelected in 1984.

In what was regarded widely as politically akin to a third term for President Ronald Reagan, Bush became in 1988 the first sitting Vice President to be elected President since Martin Van Buren in 1840.  He entered office with one of the fullest resumes of any Chief Executive and was the first President with formal diplomatic experience since James Buchanan.

Bush’s first act as President was to lead the American people in prayer.  He appointed conservative, pro-life judges, with the exception of one of his Supreme Court nominations, and enforced a strong anti-drug abuse policy, especially during the peak of crack cocaine addiction.  Bush created the Department of Veterans Affairs and successfully resolved the savings and loan crisis.  In foreign policy, Bush encouraged representative government around the world.  He overthrew the dictator of Panama in 1989, who was wanted by the U.S. for drug trafficking, had nullified a democratic election in which he had lost and had killed an American Marine, in addition to Bush’s successful ending of the Cold War with the Soviet Union in 1990-1991, which broke up shortly afterward, and his 1991 Liberation of Kuwait, which thwarted aggression,.

Bush was re-nominated by the Republicans for President, but lost re-election after Democratic nominee Bill Clinton exaggerated how poor the slowly recovering economy was, and the Democrats portrayed the once- popular Bush, who was responsibly trying to cheer economic growth, as out of touch.  However two years later, in the 1994 Republican wave election against Clinton and the Democrats, two of his sons, George W. and Jeb, were elected Governors of Texas and Florida, respectively, providing a measure of vindication for the Bush patriarch.  Both were re-elected and the former became a two-term President, the first son of a Chief Executive to be elected President since John Quincy Adams in 1828.  One of Jeb’s sons is a statewide elected official in Texas.

The former President Bush was appointed a fundraiser for major disaster relief by Presidents George W. Bush, a Republican and Barack Obama, a Democrat.  The elder Bush, who campaigned in retirement for his family members and many other Republican candidates, did not endorse Donald Trump for President. 

Bush invited the incumbent Chief Executive to his state funeral, but he had included in his funeral plans no speaking role for Trump.  Although Bush’s funeral was not quite as overtly anti-Trumpist as that of Senator John McCain’s this summer, the focus on Bush’s character, morals, decency, dignity and selfless public service was widely recognized necessarily as a contrast with Trumpism and, like McCain’s funeral, was a message of patriotism, duty and unity around the American ideal of liberty, equality and representative government.  

May George H.W. Bush’s example of devotion to God, family, community and country continue to inspire Americans to public service.

Conservative Analysis of the 2018 General Election across the American Union


Now that the results of the 2018 General Election across the American Union have been certified, it is appropriate to analyze them fully.  The Democrats were clearly victorious in both federal and even state elections at the expense of the GOP because of the unpopularity of Republican Donald Trump and an ineffective exercise of constitutional checks and balances by Congressional Republicans.

Democrats gained control of the United States House of Representatives, in their largest increase in seats since the 1974 post-Watergate election.  There will be two score more Democrats in the lower chamber of Congress in January than currently, enough for a majority for the first time in eight years.  Republicans gained a net two seats in the closely divided Senate.  However, Democrats won two thirds of the seats that were on the ballot, as only one third of the upper chamber’s seats are on the ballot very two years.

In both federal and state elections, Democrats made gains especially in the three States that decided the 2016 Presidential election for Trump, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as in a few other States.  See my post from last month, Conservative Analysis of the 2018 Pennsylvania General Election, https://williamcinfici.blogspot.com/2018/11/conservative-analysis-of-2018.html.

In state elections across the Union generally, Democrats gained several Governors and hundreds of state legislative seats and legislative chambers, among other offices.  However, two anti-Trump Republicans in heavily-Democratic seats were re-elected Governors of Massachusetts and Maryland.  Democrats were elected state Attorneys General in a majority of States.  Republicans had long held the majority.  These Attorneys General will be able to sue the federal government for Trump’s violations of federalism or other harmful effects of Trump’s policies that affect the States.

Despite a good economy and relative peace, Republicans lost because of Trump, who had declared the congressional mid-term elections a referendum on him.  Even though he tended to make endorsements in Republican-leaning U.S. House and Senate election districts and to campaign only in safe Republican areas, many candidates he endorsed lost. 

Although some anti-Trump Republican U.S. Representatives lost re-election, they did so because of Trump, not because of being against him.  In fact, voters perceived them as not being sufficiently anti-Trump, as the electorate was seeking a more effective check on him.  By contrast, several other anti-Trump Republican incumbent members of the House were victorious, including by campaigning against Trump.  Anti-Trump congressional incumbents generally represent competitive districts.  The Republicans lost some seats held by anti-Trump Republican Representatives who resigned or did not seek re-election.  Similarly, in the Senate, an anti-Trump Republican incumbent from Arizona was driven out of the GOP primary by the Trumpified Republican Party.  A Democrat was elected to the seat that had been held by Republicans since 1988.  Trump’s nativist demagoguery was politically ineffective in the border State.  In the one instance in which an anti-Trump Republican U.S. Representative was defeated in the primary election by a Trumpist, in South Carolina, the Trumpist lost the seat, which had been Republican since 1981, to a Democrat.  Trump’s protectionist policies were a negative in the Palmetto State, where exports are a major component of the state economy.  Meanwhile, an anti-Trump Republican was elected to the Senate, Mitt Romney of Utah. 

Conservative policies generally were not what cost the GOP, but Trumpist ones.  Trump’s nativist demagoguery and protectionism cost the GOP votes across the Union.  His tax cuts, which actually increased taxes for many in high-tax liberal Democratic States, cost Congressional Republican incumbents in California, New York and elsewhere.  The House Intelligence Committee’s investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election on behalf of Trump was not thorough or bipartisan, in contrast to that of the Senate Intelligence Committee.  It was the lower chamber’s lack of being an adequate check on Trump that contributed to the Republican House losses, although the failure of Congressional Republicans  in general to hold the Trump Administration accountable was the largest factor in the overall GOP defeat.

The other big loser of the 2018 mid-term elections was Russian Federation tyrant, Vladimir Putin.  Pro-Russian longtime U.S. Representative Dana Rohrbacher of California was defeated for reelection.  The Democratic takeover of the House means that there will be no lifting of economic sanctions on Russia and the House Intelligence Committee will conduct a more thorough investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election on behalf of Trump, while other Committees will investigate corruption in the Administration.

There was Russian interference in the 2018 mid-term elections, not in terms of the elections themselves, but about issues, including a number of issues that were part of the campaign, such as protests during the National Anthem, the fiscal 2018 budget, the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court and on Russian interference in the 2016 election and the investigation of it.  Russian interference is not limited to election campaigns, but is targeted at American politics in general, which can affect public opinion and, thus influences the decisions of voters.  

But even Putin could not save Trump and Trumpist Republicans from a Democratic wave as Americans grow wary of Russian influence and anti-Trump Republicans and conservatives abandoned the Congressional GOP to take away control of the House from Trump defenders.  Anti-Trump Republicans and conservatives have been vindicated for predicting before Trump’s election the harm to the Republican Party and to conservatism.  As I posted in January of this year in Conservative Analysis of the First Year of the Presidential Administration of Donald Trump, https://williamcinfici.blogspot.com/2018/01/conservative-analysis-of-first-year-of.html, his presidency is “a mortal danger to the Republican Party and a cancer on the conservative movement.”

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Foreign Digest: Updates on Venezuela, Russia and the Philippines


Venezuela
            There were more protests against the tyrannical Socialist Venezuelan regime late last month.  Meanwhile, the United States Department of State is reportedly considering listing Venezuela as a state sponsor of terrorism, something I called for in a post to this blog from February of 2012, Designate Venezuela a State Sponsor of Terrorism, http://williamcinfici.blogspot.com/2012/02/designate-venezuela-state-sponsor-of.html.

Russia
            Russian Federation warships attacked Ukrainian naval boats last week in international waters in the Kerch Strait in an unprovoked attack in which the Russian naval forces fired shots at the Ukrainian vessels and rammed one of them, capturing the Ukrainian boats and their crew and refusing to release them.  Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, in violation of a treaty between the two former Soviet Republics in which Russia agreed to recognize Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, including Crimea, where Russia was permitted to retain a naval base.  The Kerch strait, which leads from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov, is between Russian and Crimea.  The tyrannical regime of Vladimir Putin also militarily backs Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine.  Over ten thousand Ukrainians have been killed in the Russian-led war.

Philippines
           The President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, the “Filipino Trump,” has threatened critics, including Catholic Bishops, of his overt policy of encouraging Filipinos to kill suspected drug dealers.  Thousands of Filipinos have been murdered without trial.  Donald Trump, the pretender to the American presidency, praised Duterte for his policy.  Duterte has admitted to the “sin of extrajudicial killings.”