Bob Hawke, In Memoriam

           Former conservative Prime Minister of Australia Bob Hawke died last week at the age of 89.  He served as premier from 1983 to 1991, winning four elections as party leader (the most in the conservative Labor Party’s history), and was a strong ally of the United States, during the presidencies of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. 

           Hawke, a former trade unionist, had been a Member of Parliament from 1980 to 1992.  As Prime Minister, Hawke cut taxes that were in the form of tariffs while taxing fringe benefits, privatized state-owned industries and restored balance in private business by reducing the power of labor unions.  It was also during his premiership that the last vestiges of British colonial power over Australia were eliminated through Australian and British legislation.  

Richard Lugar, In Memoriam

           Richard Lugar, the six-term Republican United States Senator from Indiana most known for his successful post-Cold War denuclearization efforts, died a month ago in Falls Church, Virginia at the age of 87. 

Born in Indianapolis in 1932, Lugar graduated from Denison University and Oxford University as a Rhodes Scholar before serving in the Navy as a Lieutenant and as an intelligence briefer during the Cold War.

First elected to public office in 1964 as a Indianapolis school board member, serving for three years, Lugar was then elected Mayor in 1968 and again in 1972, serving two full four-year terms.  During his tenure as Mayor, he was President of the National League of Cities in 1971. 

Lugar was the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in 1974, losing a close race to the incumbent Democrat.  He was then elected Senator for six consecutive terms, serving from 1977-2013, the longest in state history.  Lugar was pro-life, moderately conservative, pro-free trade and bipartisan, being able to get legislation passed or foreign policy implemented because of the wide respect he enjoyed.  He generally supported Cold War policies and those in support of the War on Terrorism, while advocating for human rights and liberty abroad.  Lugar’s 1991 legislation with Democratic Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia to eliminate nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, particularly from the former Soviet Union was his greatest legislative accomplishment, among other anti-proliferation measures he supported.  The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program continues to reduce the threat of weapons of mass destruction.  He was defeated for renomination for a seventh term in 2012 by a Republican for not being conservative enough who then lost the general election to a Democrat. 

Lugar was not a Trumpist and criticized Donald Trump’s lack of civility in office.  By contrast, Lugar was known for his civility. He also joined with many other former Republican members of Congress in opposition to Trump’s abuse of his emergency powers.

May Lugar’s legacy remind Americans that although there are sharp ideological difference, U.S. foreign policy is a matter that ought to be above partisanship and that bipartisanship makes it possible to enact good legislation.  

Pro-Europeans, Center-Right Won the European Parliamentary Elections, Despite Far-Right Gains

Parliamentary elections have been held for the European Union for the first time since 2014.  Far-right nationalist, populist, anti-immigrant and anti-EU parties did well across most of the rest of the EU, winning pluralities in France, the United Kingdom and Italy, gaining in other Western European States and winning majorities or at least pluralities in some of the Eastern European States, but center-right parties won a plurality and pro-European parties an overall majority. 

The “sovereignist” parties are skeptical of the EU, objecting to the loss of national sovereignty to the European super-state, are typically opposed to the EU’s austerity policy that was imposed in response to the debt crisis among many of its members, and opposed to immigration and sometimes even to asylum for refugees.  The rescuing and processing of migrants, although down sharply from the last few years,  has created some fiscal hardships for southern EU members, while the freedom of movement across the EU has led to economic and cultural resentments that are exploited by the far-right populists, despite the need for more laborers because of declining birth rates.  Although these parties are nationalist, they have made international common cause with like-minded parties and are often pro-Russian, as Russian Federation authoritarian and kleptocratic tyrant Vladimir Putin supports these far-right parties, in addition to backing far-left ones, in order to foster divisions between Europeans to weaken the EU and the West. 

            The scattering of votes for parties other than far-right ones varied.  In France, the ruling centrists nearly tied the far-right, which is an encouraging result for them for the next French parliamentary elections, with center-right and the Socialist parties much farther behind.  In the UK, the ruling Conservatives suffered a humiliatingly low vote total while center-left to left parties earned the next most votes combined after the anti-EU populists.  The British participated for the last time in the EU parliamentary elections before the deadline for the UK to leave the EU.  The EU elections were seen as a referendum for hardliners demanding a withdrawal, with or without a deal for an orderly departure.  In Italy, the center-left, which had won the most votes in the last elections, came in second with less than a quarter of the votes, but ahead of the ruling populists who earned only half as many votes as the far-right party, while the main center-right party lost a significant number of seats.  The elections were seen as a referendum on the far-right party, which is the junior partner in a tense coalition government with the populists.  In Spain, the ruling Socialists obtained a plurality of votes, but the two center-right parties combined for more votes, despite gains by a far-right party that finished a distant fourth.

            The Netherlands and Austria were notable exceptions to the wave for far-right nationalist parties.  The Dutch far-right party was shut out of the European Parliament, with the two main center-right parties, including the ruling party, winning a combined plurality and the main center-left party earning the most votes for a single party.  The Austrian far-right party lost seats in the EU Parliament after all of its members resigned from the Government, of which it was the junior party in a coalition, following the revelation that the nationalist Vice Chancellor had intended to accept campaign contributions from the Russian Federation.  The ruling center-right party gained seats while the center-left lost.  Today, the Prime Minister lost a vote of confidence without the support of his erstwhile coalition partners, which will lead to new parliamentary elections.

            Another consequence of the EU parliamentary elections is that the far-left Prime Minister of Greece today asked for new elections after being defeated by the conservatives.

           Overall, the far-right and other allied populists will form a large bloc of the majority of seats held by parties on the right side of the political spectrum in the European Parliament, but the main bloc of center-right parties alone won a plurality of seats in the body, thanks in significant part to their strong showing in Germany, the EU member with the most seats, while parties on the left side of the spectrum fell short of an overall majority, despite advances by the Greens, with the main bloc of center-left parties coming in second.  Other far-left parties generally did not fare well.  Pro-European parties across the center of the spectrum won many more seats than anti-EU populist parties of both the far right and left.

Memorial Day 2019 Thoughts

           As I have noted in past years, Memorial Day is not a day for celebration, as has become an increasingly popular practice, with picnics and jubilation and wishes for a “Happy Memorial Day,” but a day of mourning those who died in service the United States of America and for considering their sacrifice and expressing our gratitude for them for the freedoms we Americans enjoy.

            It has been an especially poignant holiday the last few years because of the bicentennial of the War of 1812, the 150^th anniversary of the Civil War, the centennial of the First World War and the ongoing 75^th anniversary of the Second World War. 

            Memorial Day was first observed after the Civil War in 1865, the bloodiest war for Americans.  The current controversies about that struggle to preserve the Union of States risk discarding the essential constitutional principle of federalism because of its association with slavery, a practice anathema to freedom, which was the primary cause of the conflict between most of the slave-holding States of the South and the northernmost States that led to the secession from the Union of those slave States and the war between the two regions.  Federalism is the principle that the States that formed the Union through the Constitution retained their sovereignty in matters not delegated to the Union, thereby limiting federal power in order to avoid too great a concentration of power, for when two principles are in competition, it is not necessary to eliminate one of them altogether, even when it may be wrongly applied, or if its sacrifice in a particular instance were necessary for the greater good.  Whatever the constitutionality of secession, which seems a natural right of states that form any union, and which had been a safeguard against too much federal power, let alone the prudence of its particular invocation, the States ought not be reduced to provinces by the establishment of a super-state that was never intended by the Framers and feared by them and those who were skeptical of the Constitution.  Federalism is not incompatible with liberty or equality, for it can and ought to be their safeguard.

With liberty under assault from both the far left and the far right and the sacrifices for freedom made by those who died in service at grave risk, it would be helpful to understand American history better, instead of it being misinterpreted or misappropriated for current political advantage, and for there to be a healthier respect for those who argue reasonably for competing principles instead of absolute condemnation of one side or the other.  Reconciliation that makes the Union stronger while preserving liberty and equality would be a more fitting honor of those who made the last full measure of sacrifice than the promotion of unnecessary divisions that are often exacerbated by foreign enemies to weaken America.

May God bless America and keep her safe and free.

Thoughts on the 2019 Pennsylvania Primary Election

           Most of the results of the 2019 Pennsylvania Primary Election have now been tallied and published.  The election also doubled as a special federal and state election in certain districts where there were vacant legislative seats. 

The Republican candidates for United States Representative and state legislative seats in those special elections won the most votes, thereby holding their safe GOP seats, as expected. 

Many incumbents for countywide, municipal or school district elections were defeated for re-nomination in both parties across Pennsylvania. 

One result that demonstrated relatively clearly the Trumpification of the Republican Party was the defeat of a Philadelphia City Councilman for two reasons: 1) he had questioned hundreds of millions of dollars of wasteful expenditures by the Philadelphia Parking Authority, which is the lone patronage-rich entity controlled by Republicans in Philadelphia County, and 2) the Asian-American Councilman had voted, in accordance with federalist principles, to not obligate the City to enforce federal immigration laws and he had endured insults about his citizenship status based upon racial prejudice. 

Trumpism is populism, protectionism, isolationism and nativism.  The last state and local general elections in 2017 trended toward the Democrats because of Donald Trump and the failure of the Republican Party to stand up to him, but the GOP has since been increasingly Trumpified, in terms both of defending Trump and adopting Trumpism and Trumpy behavior (insults, crudity, dishonesty, conspiracy-theory peddling, self-interest).  This trend will likely lead to similar results in the General Election in November, which will continue to motivate Democrats to vote and to force non-Trumpist conservatives, moderates and libertarians look beyond the Republican Party for center-right leadership.

Foreign Digest: Austria, Ukraine and the United Kingdom

Austria

            All members of the Austrian Cabinet of the far-right party resigned last week, after the Vice Chancellor had resigned and new elections were called for by the President because of the exposure of a plot by the far-right leader to receive illegal campaign contributions from the Russian Federation.

Ukraine

            The Ukrainian Prime Minister resigned last week and the newly installed President dissolved Parliament.  He called for new parliamentary elections in two months.

United Kingdom

           British Prime Minister Theresa May announced late last week that she is resigning as Conservative Party leader and Premier, effective June 7.  New parliamentary elections will be called and a new prime minister chosen by July.  May has been attempting unsuccessfully to win parliamentary approval for her deal with the European Union for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom.  A referendum was approved in June of 2016 to leave, but the deal is controversial, particularly about the status of the border with the Irish Republic. The deadline to leave has been extended repeatedly.  The U.K. must leave by the end of October, with or without a deal to leave in an orderly manner in regard to various major issues, namely the border, customs, trade, the status of EU nationals and fishing rights.

The 2019 Pennsylvania Primary Election

Tuesday, May 21 is the 2019 Pennsylvania Primary Election.  There are statewide judicial elections, as well as legislative, county, municipal, district judge, constable and school director elections.

A number of special elections for federal and state legislators are simultaneously being conducted to elect people to complete terms for seats that were vacated.  There is one for United States Representative in the 11^th District, three each for State Representative and State Senate around the Commonwealth.

There are nominations for the two major political parties for two Superior Court seats on the ballot

County Commission and row office nominations will also be made in every County and for Common Please Judge in some of them.  Mayors, City and Borough Councils, Township Commissioners or Supervisors and other municipal office nominations will be decided in every municipality, as will nominations for some Magisterial District Judges and Constables.  School Directors will be nominated in every School District. 

Local offices affect people most directly.  Because fewer people vote in primaries for county and local offices, a vote counts for more proportionately than for any other election.  Only registered voters of the two major political parties may vote in their party’s respective primary election.  Many offices are not contested in the General Election, so the primary election is critical.  

There are conservative candidates, especially in the Republican Party, including some that are relatively less Trumpist (populist, protectionist, isolationist and nativist) or Trumpy (motivated by pecuniary interest, crude, insulting, dishonest and immoral) than others.  

In many Counties, new election machines will be used for the first time.  These will have paper backup to defend better against hacking.

Make plans to learn about the candidates for the major party nominations and to vote.  Polls in Pennsylvania are open from 7:00 AM to 8:00 PM.  Click on this link to the Department of State https://www.votespa.com/Pages/default.aspx to check your registration status, find your district and your polling place and to learn more about how elections are conducted and voting rights.  

Foreign Digest: Venezuela, Austria and Australia

Venezuela

            Socialist regime associates were arrested after occupying the Venezuelan Embassy to the United States in an effort to block the transfer of the embassy to diplomats loyal to the de jure President Juan Guaido.

Austria

            The far-right Vice-Chancellor of Austria resigned yesterday after a hidden videotape surfaced of him arranging for political contributions from Russia.  His far-right party is the junior partner of the leading center-right party in the government coalition.  The Russian Federation’s authoritarian and kleptocratic tyrant, Vladimir Putin, supports not only far-left parties in Europe, but also far-right nationalist ones.  The scandal has led the Chancellor to ask the President for elections as soon as possible and also effect next week’s European parliamentary elections, where “sovranist” parties are trying to gain a plurality.  The President today set elections for September, although not with a specific date.  The Government had enjoyed majority support, but now the center-right ruling party can no longer remain in coalition with the far-right party it needed in order to obtain the majority of parliamentary seats necessary to govern.

Australia 

           The conservative coalition won an upset in the Australian parliamentary elections yesterday over the liberal party, although slightly shy of a majority, so far.  Prime Minister Scott Morrison has held office for only four months after the change in leadership of the main center-right party.  Australia has been a strong ally of the United States in the War on Terrorism and against other threats, as it had been during the Cold War.

Foreign Digest: North Macedonia, Sudan and Hungary

North Macedonia

            Presidential elections were conducted in North Macedonia earlier this month.  The newly installed President plans to integrate the former Yugoslav Republic into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union.  Integration is supported by its southern Greek neighbor after the two States reached on accord on the Slavic Macedonia’s name, in order to distinguish it better from the homonymous Greek province across the border to prevent any separatism there.  The dispute had lasted two decades since Macedonian independence from Yugoslavia. Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin opposed the deal in order to keep Macedonia out of NATO and keep Europe divided and employed an active measures campaign against it, but it failed.

Sudan

            The former Islamist tyrant, war criminal and state sponsor of terrorism has been charged by the new transitional military government, which overthrew him last month, for atrocities.  The government has also reached an agreement to share power with the opposition in a civilian government until elections in three years.  Until then, the opposition will have two thirds of the seats in the national assembly.

Hungary

            The Hungarian President was a guest this week at the White House, the American Executive Mansion.  Previous United States Presidents declined to grant Viktor Orban such an honor.  The visit legitimizes his admitted illiberalism, kleptocracy, anti-immigrant xenophobia and anti-Semitism, as well as his pro-Putin foreign policy.  Furthermore, the pretender to the U.S. presidency, Donald Trump, even praised Orban for some of these policies.  Trump, who has been a champion of extreme nationalism and who himself has authoritarian and kleptocratic proclivities, has a pattern of praising or congratulating authoritarians, such as those of the Russian Federation, North Korea, Communist China, Turkey and the Philippines, sometimes specifically for their authoritarianism, or at least excusing their illiberalism.  The withdrawal of U.S. leadership on freedom has not only tarnished American prestige, but helped exacerbate the global trend toward authoritarianism and reduced liberty around the world.

Foreign Digest: Italy, Venezuela and South Africa

Italy

            The Italian Parliament approved a measure to restore the educational requirement of civics in its schools.

            An Italian high court ruled that two males cannot be registered as the parents of a baby.  Only the biological parent may be registered as a parent.

            The Interior Secretary announced that he will be closing all of Italy’s cannabis shops because they are misleading people.

Venezuela      

After Venezuela revoked immunity for eight national legislators of the democratic opposition for alleged ties to the attempted coup earlier this month, Italy gave sanctuary to two of them in its Embassy.  Another democratic opposition member of the national assembly has fled to Colombia.  He is the founder of the same party as assembly leader Juan Guaido and former presidential candidate Leopoldo Lopez, who took sanctuary in the Spanish Embassy last week after being freed by the opposition from house arrest, as I had posted about.

            The Vice President has been arrested by the tyrannical Socialist regime last week.  He is part of the government proclaimed by Guaido, who had invoked a constitutional provision to declare himself president because the dictatorship had supplanted the assembly and does not permit certain freedoms and free elections.  Guaido called for more mass protests today, which are typically met by the regime with arrests and even violence, as I have been posting. The Socialists came to power democratically in 2002, but became authoritarian and have plunged the prosperous country into abject poverty, with rampant corruption, crime and energy shortages.

South Africa

           The Marxist-oriented ruling African National Congress suffered its worst showing ever in the South African parliamentary elections, earning only 57% of the votes because of corruption, poverty and inequality, despite being the wealthiest African State; it had never received less than 60%.  The previous president had been forced from office by the ANC because of corruption.

Analysis of the Mueller Report and of the Next Necessary Steps

Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report has been published in a redacted form, but the vast majority of Americans have read little or none of it and thus are vulnerable to being misled by misinterpretations of it, especially because the United States Attorney General provided his own characterization of it that was not consistent with that of the Special Counsel and Trump and many of his supporters falsely declared the report an exoneration.  Some of Donald Trump’s supporters have discouraged people from reading the Mueller Report, which seems inconsistent with Trump’s boasts that it vindicates him.  I encourage people to read the report and consider its implications: https://www.justice.gov/storage/report.pdf.  It is now time to begin to determine the next appropriate steps.

First, it is necessary to understand the scope and limitations of the Special Counsel investigation and the Mueller Report.  The Special Counsel investigation was both a counterintelligence and criminal investigation that was limited to certain questions about Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.  The report observes the investigation was partly hindered by witnesses who lied, declined to testify (e.g. Trump refused to submit to an interview) or who had not retained electronic documentary evidence, and by some evidence remaining in out-of-reach foreign hands.  The entire second volume of the Mueller Report details Trump’s flagrant attempts to obstruct justice, a judgment about prosecuting for which was precluded by Justice Department policy against prosecuting a sitting president.  The Special Counsel documented the evidence for prosecution after Trump leaves office and left the broader political decision about impeachment on this question up to Congress.  Trump’s Attorney General made the decision not to prosecute, declaring Trump’s innocence, contrary to the entire point of having an independent Special Counsel.

The Mueller Report is also incomplete because it does not include all of the counter-intelligence part of the investigation.  For example, the report refers to additional Kremlin interference besides those that resulted in indictments of Russians by the Special Counsel’s grand jury.  The report notes ongoing prosecutions by the Special Counsel and his federal criminal referrals of numerous other matters, including the possible coordination between the Trump Campaign and Russia through Roger Stone and Wikileaks.  The Special Counsel’s investigation was itself only one of many partly overlapping investigations, including those by committees in both chambers of Congress. 

The office of Special Counsel conducted a thorough criminal investigation and was able to reach conclusions, within its limited parameters.  It brought numerous indictments and obtained several guilty pleas and convictions of Trump associates.  The Mueller Report explains how the Special Counsel reached the conclusions he could that were within his legal scope about criminal conspiracy, not the non-criminal law term “collusion,” while also uncovering some evidence of crimes that were not sufficient to prove beyond a reasonable doubt and of wrongdoing that was short of criminality, while leaving judgments about its findings to Congress and the American people.

            The Mueller Report describes interference in American politics by Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin, starting in 2014, in a more “sweeping and systematic” active measures campaign of political influence than ever before conducted.  Note: ex-KGB officer Putin presides over an authoritarian, kleptocratic regime that is inimical to the United States, despite some common interests with Russia.  The Russian autocrat fostered doubts about sources of truth, exploited and exacerbated partisan and ideological divisions, and decreased confidence in elections.  Russia had long cultivated the far-left, but began also to cultivate the far-right and conservatives to improve Putin’s image among Americans.  These efforts set the stage for a pro-Putin presidential candidate, particularly in the Republican Party that had heretofore been unfavorable to him, although the Kremlin interfered in both major parties’ nomination processes.  His election interference specifically promoted Donald Trump’s candidacy both in the GOP primaries and the general election and included a voter suppression component that also discouraged voters on the left from voting for the Democratic presidential general election ticket.  Putin turned many ordinary Americans into unwitting agents who spread his propaganda and disinformation and even attended Russian-organized rallies, including in Pennsylvania.

            The Special Counsel reports that candidate Trump had business interests with Russia during the presidential campaign that he concealed and lied about, which left him potentially compromised by Putin.  The presidential candidate used his campaign to boost Putin’s favorability.  Trump accepted and even publicly welcomed Russian campaign interference on his behalf.  The Trump campaign coordinated its messaging with the publication of data stolen by the Russians and released through a Kremlin cutout.  Trump and his campaign, knowingly or not, amplified Putin’s pro-Trump propaganda and disinformation.  Trump Campaign Manager Paul Manafort, who was convicted of and pleaded guilty of crimes through the Special Counsel’s investigation, including failing to register as a foreign agent for pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians, shared internal campaign polling data and strategy with a Kremlin spy, including in regard to Pennsylvania.  The statewide election for presidential Electors was determined by a total of only 44,292 votes.

The Mueller Report must be followed up on by pursuing answers to the questions it left unanswered, further identifying vulnerabilities to foreign attacks on American sovereignty through political and election interference, developing and implementing countermeasures through improved cybersecurity, closing legal loopholes the report exposed and holding those complicit accountable.

Because Congress must see the fuller Mueller Report in order to fulfill its role of conducting oversight of the Executive Branch and of enacting laws, members with security authorizations must be able to see it, except only for those redactions that are legally necessary.  They must be able to see the exhibits that were included in the published report and need to hear the testimony of Special Counsel Mueller in order to understand better his decisions and whether he disagrees with the Attorney General’s characterizations of the report and the decision not to prosecute instead of leaving the decision to Congress and the people. Congress must be able to interview other witnesses or subpoena other documents. 

In addition to the role of federal prosecutors and that of Congress, the American people will have a role in rendering judgment on the findings of the Special Counsel’s report.

Foreign Digest: Venezuela, Spain and Ukraine

Venezuela

            After some soldiers had defected to the democratic opposition with their arms and armaments, Venezuelan National Assembly leader Juan Guaido called this week for a military rebellion against the Socialist dictatorship.  There have been large protests, which, as usual, have been met by the tyrannical regime by arrests and deadly violence.  Guaido had used a constitutional provision last year to declare himself president, with the support of the duly appointed Supreme Court, after the assembly had been supplanted by a regime-contrived body.  The United States and dozens of other States recognize Guaido as President.  The U.S. supports the counterrevolution, but the Russian Federation opposes it.  There are Russian mercenaries in Venezuela.  The former opposition presidential candidate, Leopoldo Lopez, was freed by the opposition from government-imposed house arrest.  He took sanctuary in the Spanish Embassy, but the Socialist Spanish Government will not permit him to engage in political activity from its soil. 

Spain

            The ruling Socialists won the most seats in the parliamentary elections this week, gaining a large number from that last elections in 2016 but short of a majority.  The results will necessitate another coalition government, probably with the other center-left party, which came in fourth after losing seats, although they would still not have enough seats for a majority.  The center-right party came in third, losing only a handful of seats, while the conservatives came in third, nearly doubling their total.  These two parties’ combined number of 123 seats equals that of the Socialists in the 350-seat chamber.  However, the far-right will be in Parliament for the first time with two dozen seats.  Catalonian regional parties received most of the rest.

Ukraine

           Ukraine’s new President this week countered Russian Federation authoritarian leader Vladimir Putin’s proposal to grant citizenship to Ukrainians by offered Ukrainian citizens to Russians or any who fled tyranny and wished to help defend liberty.  Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and seized the Crimean Peninsula, in violation of its treaty with Ukraine recognizing the former Soviet Republic’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.