Monday, May 27, 2019

Pro-Europeans, Center-Right Won the European Parliamentary Elections, Despite Far-Right Gains


Parliamentary elections have been held for the European Union for the first time since 2014.  Far-right nationalist, populist, anti-immigrant and anti-EU parties did well across most of the rest of the EU, winning pluralities in France, the United Kingdom and Italy, gaining in other Western European States and winning majorities or at least pluralities in some of the Eastern European States, but center-right parties won a plurality and pro-European parties an overall majority. 

The “sovereignist” parties are skeptical of the EU, objecting to the loss of national sovereignty to the European super-state, are typically opposed to the EU’s austerity policy that was imposed in response to the debt crisis among many of its members, and opposed to immigration and sometimes even to asylum for refugees.  The rescuing and processing of migrants, although down sharply from the last few years,  has created some fiscal hardships for southern EU members, while the freedom of movement across the EU has led to economic and cultural resentments that are exploited by the far-right populists, despite the need for more laborers because of declining birth rates.  Although these parties are nationalist, they have made international common cause with like-minded parties and are often pro-Russian, as Russian Federation authoritarian and kleptocratic tyrant Vladimir Putin supports these far-right parties, in addition to backing far-left ones, in order to foster divisions between Europeans to weaken the EU and the West. 

            The scattering of votes for parties other than far-right ones varied.  In France, the ruling centrists nearly tied the far-right, which is an encouraging result for them for the next French parliamentary elections, with center-right and the Socialist parties much farther behind.  In the UK, the ruling Conservatives suffered a humiliatingly low vote total while center-left to left parties earned the next most votes combined after the anti-EU populists.  The British participated for the last time in the EU parliamentary elections before the deadline for the UK to leave the EU.  The EU elections were seen as a referendum for hardliners demanding a withdrawal, with or without a deal for an orderly departure.  In Italy, the center-left, which had won the most votes in the last elections, came in second with less than a quarter of the votes, but ahead of the ruling populists who earned only half as many votes as the far-right party, while the main center-right party lost a significant number of seats.  The elections were seen as a referendum on the far-right party, which is the junior partner in a tense coalition government with the populists.  In Spain, the ruling Socialists obtained a plurality of votes, but the two center-right parties combined for more votes, despite gains by a far-right party that finished a distant fourth.

            The Netherlands and Austria were notable exceptions to the wave for far-right nationalist parties.  The Dutch far-right party was shut out of the European Parliament, with the two main center-right parties, including the ruling party, winning a combined plurality and the main center-left party earning the most votes for a single party.  The Austrian far-right party lost seats in the EU Parliament after all of its members resigned from the Government, of which it was the junior party in a coalition, following the revelation that the nationalist Vice Chancellor had intended to accept campaign contributions from the Russian Federation.  The ruling center-right party gained seats while the center-left lost.  Today, the Prime Minister lost a vote of confidence without the support of his erstwhile coalition partners, which will lead to new parliamentary elections.

            Another consequence of the EU parliamentary elections is that the far-left Prime Minister of Greece today asked for new elections after being defeated by the conservatives.

           Overall, the far-right and other allied populists will form a large bloc of the majority of seats held by parties on the right side of the political spectrum in the European Parliament, but the main bloc of center-right parties alone won a plurality of seats in the body, thanks in significant part to their strong showing in Germany, the EU member with the most seats, while parties on the left side of the spectrum fell short of an overall majority, despite advances by the Greens, with the main bloc of center-left parties coming in second.  Other far-left parties generally did not fare well.  Pro-European parties across the center of the spectrum won many more seats than anti-EU populist parties of both the far right and left.

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