Conservative Republican Bob Turner, a 70 year-old businessman and political novice, won a special election to the United States House of Representatives in a district that includes parts of the Boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens. The seat had become vacant because of the resignation of the incumbent Democrat.
Democrats, who have held the seat since the 1922 election, outnumber Republicans by a 3:1 ratio in the district. Turner’s upset victory is seen as a referendum and President Barak Obama and a harbinger of Republican success in the upcoming 2012 Elections.
Meanwhile, a Republican, Mark Amodei, easily won election in another U.S. House special election on the same day in Nevada. The seat had become vacant because of the appointment of the incumbent Republican as U.S. Senator. Although a GOP victory was expected in the Republican district, the high margin of votes validated the significance of the results in the New York special election.
A Democrat had won a special election in a Republican district earlier this year in upstate New York by accusing Republicans of wanting to cut Medicare, but that strategy, which the Democrats had hoped to replicate, was unsuccessful in yesterday’s election. The election focused more on Obama’s fiscal policies and their harm to the economy and his federalization of health insurance. Turner ran as a fiscal conservative.
However, it must be noted that the Democratic nominee was hurt by a few additional issues. As a state legislator, he had voted earlier this year for gay marriage, which was a major issue in the campaign. Turner, a Catholic, ran as a pro-life and anti-gay marriage candidate. The Democratic nominee also had supported the Islamic Center near the World Trade Center. Although the Democratic candidate was a pro-Israel Orthodox Jew, Turner was able to make the contest a referendum on Obama’s policy toward Israel, which is recognized as less supportive than that of previous Presidents. The social issues and the foreign policy matter combined to lift the Republican nominee in a district comprised of many Jews and Catholics, especially in Brooklyn, where the GOP candidate easily won.
Although special elections always depend upon the individual candidates and local issues, they nevertheless are somewhat predictive of voting trends. If a conservative Republican can win a race in New York City, Republicans are likely to succeed in both the elections for presidential Electors and Congress in 2012. In the meantime, the results confirm the unpopularity of Obama’s policies, which might stiffen congressional resolve against any additional unnecessary spending programs.
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An article in today's Human Events by John Gizzi reminded me that, like Turner, Amodei also had to defend against a major "Mediscare" attack by the Left. He was successful in defeating it by focusing on how Obama's federalization of health insurance would result in massive cuts to Medicare.
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