Regardless
of whether President Napolitano accepts Letta’s resignation and urges him to
submit to a parliamentary vote of confidence, the Democrats’ impatience with
the pace of reform would make it unlikely the premier would gain enough support
from his coalition partners to add to the small minority he retains in his own
party for his executive to survive. The
Head of State had chosen Letta, a Member of Parliament, after a two-month long
hung parliament had resulted after inconclusive elections in 2013, after having
chosen his predecessor, technocrat Mario Monti, whom Napolitano had named a
Life Senator as Berlusconi’s Government had been teetering on the brink of
collapse amidst Italy’s financial crisis.
This time, however, not only was the choice to lead Italy ’s government not in the hands of the
voters, but not even in that of Parliament, as the Democratic Party has chosen Italy ’s prime minister. Furthermore, in a politically risky move, it
has chosen in Renzi someone to lead an executive who has never served in
Parliament or even stood for parliamentary or national election. In fact, Renzi had stated that he preferred
for elections to determine to the next premier, but had had also observed the
unlikelihood of a definitive choice before the much-maligned and
unconstitutional election law could be reformed.
Letta had
adroitly managed to keep the unprecedented left-right government together longer
than many analysts had expected, despite the removal of Berlusconi by his
Democrats from the Senate, after the center-right leader’s conviction on
corruption charges. He had instituted a
number of fiscal, economic and political reforms and had proposed additional
ones, but impatience grew with the lack of bold parliamentary action as Italy
has continued to be stuck in its worst post-Second World War recession.
Renzi had struck a deal with Berlusconi on a
reform of Italy’s election law that would increase the required share of votes
for Parliament for smaller parties to serve in government, lower the large
number of bonus seats awarded the party that wins the most parliamentary seats,
and reduce block lists in order to allow voters to choose their Members of
Parliament more directly. The proposal
also would make the lawmaking function of Parliament unicameral, as the upper
chamber, the Senate, would be stripped of its legislative power and largely become
an assembly of the Regions and Provinces.
Renzi’s plan, which marginalized Letta, who supported it, would decrease
the possibility of another hung parliament by giving the winning coalition a
better chance of governing with a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, the
lower house. The plan not only minimizes
smaller parties that tend to veto reforms, but also minimizes the
obstructionist populist party, which came in third in the 2013 parliamentary
elections. The two main center-right
parties, Berlusconi’s and the remnant of his former party that remained in
Letta’s government, support the plan.
Renzi would likely need support
from the center-right to gain a mandate from President Napolitano to head a new
government and win parliamentary approval for his political reform proposal and
other fiscal and economic reforms.
However, they are likely to be calls from the right for the Head of
State to dissolve Parliament and schedule new parliamentary elections – that
would have to be conducted under the existing law – which could continue the
uncertainty over Italy ’s
direction, a move Napolitano had dismissed previously. I shall post updates of significant
developments.
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