The right-wing bloc of parties won
the most votes and seats in the Italian parliamentary elections in both
chambers, but fell short of a majority necessary to form a government. The anti-establishment populist party won the
most votes and seats of any individual party, while the center-left bloc came
in third.
The right-wing bloc is made up of
three parties that won seats. The
far-right anti-immigrant Northern League, which won the third most votes and seats
of any individual party, edged the center-right party of former Prime Minister
Silvio Berlusconi, which came in fourth.
A smaller more conservative party also reached the 3% threshold to win
seats, while a bloc of centrists and center-right parties within the right-wing
bloc failed to qualify. By agreement
among the parties, the League leader would be the bloc’s choice for premier, as
the leader of the party that won the most votes within the bloc.
The populists, who argue that they
deserve a mandate to try to form a government, refuse to govern with any other
party and would only accept into any coalition government they might lead those
who accept their platform. The ruling center-left
party, which was the only party within its bloc to win seats, prefers to remain
in the opposition, instead of governing with radicals like the populists and
the Northern League. The League leader
prefers to govern only with his bloc, not either of the other two parties. He also opposes any limited-time or purpose governments,
such as a grand coalition to amend the election law to give a bonus number of
seats to the party winning the most votes in order to obtain a majority. Therefore, it will be difficult for a
government to be formed under these circumstances because no one can obtain a
vote of confidence, which requires a majority.
The Italian President likely would give the League and then the
populists a mandate to explore the formation of a government, but they would
each likely fail, which would necessitate other options.
A combination of the Berlusconi’s
conservatives and the center-left would not have enough votes, but the League
and the populists, who share much of a radical platform of being anti-European,
anti-immigrant, pro-Russian, protectionist and anti-vaccination, would have a bare
majority. However, it might be difficult
for the League leader to accept being in government as a junior partner,
instead of as prime minister. Even this
arrangement would likely not be stable, as the parties disagree on other
matters, although it might be the least unstable option of all. The President also has other options, such as
installing a limited-time or purpose government, for example, to amend the
election law, or to install a technical government. The other option is for the Italians to hold
another parliamentary election in two months.
Those voters who voted for the small parties that did not win seats
would likely vote for one of the larger parties that did. It is possible that some centrists from
either bloc could vote for Berlusconi’s center-right party to make it the
largest party within the winning right-wing bloc to prevent the League leader at
least from being premier, if not out of government.
In the meantime, the outgoing
center-left-center-right coalition remains in power as a caretaker.
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