Italian Elections Update: Populist Program and Government Proposal

The anti-establishment populist and anti-migrant far-right Italian parties have reached an agreement on a populist program for a government and on an unnamed prime minister and cabinet.  They are now obtaining support for their program from their general membership and will seek the approval of the President of the Italian Republic tomorrow.

The anti-establishment populists were the party that won the most votes and seats in the Italian parliamentary elections on March 4, while the far-right party came in third, but was first among the right-wing bloc that won the most votes and seats overall.  Together, they have a slim majority.  The two center-right parties in that coalition are not participating in the talks or plan to support the formation of the left-right populist government. 

The program is a mix of good and bad ideas, with the bad outweighing the good.  It not only is worrying the rest of Europe, but the financial markets, as the Italian bond has been battered by the prospect of the populist government for Italy.  Italy risks not only its progress on reducing its debt, and, therefore, the confidence investors have in it, but its relationships with the European Union and the Western Alliance, as well as its international prestige.

The good points in the left-right populist program are military modernization; a low, flat income tax, coupled with a crackdown on tax evasion; anti-corruption policies, including tougher penalties, a prohibition on conflicts of interest for Cabinet members and the elimination of exorbitant pensions for members of Parliament; reductions in the size and cost of government and other political reforms, such as increased federalism (devolution of power to Regions and even to Communes); and limitations on gambling.

           

            The program includes remaining in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but favors dropping economic sanctions against the authoritarian, oligarchical Russian Federation regime of Vladimir Putin for his invasion of Ukraine.  The language of the program recognizes only Islamism as a threat, while failing to recognize Putin as a threat, whom the populists see only as a partner, despite his invasions of Georgia and Ukraine, which they do not mention.  The pro-Putin parties even encourage him to be an interlocutor in the Middle East, where he has been inflaming matters by backing Iranian-backed terrorists like Hezbollah and Syria’s Assad regime.  The program offers no criticism of Putin for his other machinations, such as aiding the Taliban, supplying oil to North Korea and interfering with elections in Europe and the United States.  The left-right populists who claim to be democratic are silent also about Putin’s authoritarianism, kleptocracy and money-laundering.  The program also includes a reduction in Italian international peacekeeping because the populists are unable to recognize obvious threats to Italy or what is in the Italian national interest, like typical isolationists anywhere.  Italy has been prestigious for being one of the world’s leading peacekeepers. 

The anti-European left-right populist program includes remaining in the European Union and keeping the single currency, the euro, but renegotiating Italy’s relationship with the E.U., including certain E.U. treaties.  Although it would be prudent to renegotiate the relationship and treaties, it is the motivations of the populists that are disturbing.  Their first objection, based upon the excuse of sovereignty, is over the E.U.-imposed constraints on Italian public spending because of the Republic’s high debt, to which Italy has agreed.  They want to renegotiate the subject with the E.U. to pay for their spending spree of tens of billions of dollars on welfare, infrastructure and the undoing of pension reform, among other things.  The populists also want to renegotiate migration and freedom of movement with the E.U.  They claim they would respect human rights, despite their anti-migrant bias, while cracking down on human trafficking and increasing repatriation.  Yet, these policies would keep migrants from being able to flee the war, persecution or famine.  Italy has gained international prestige for leading the European effort to save thousands of migrants in the Mediterranean, for which the E.U. has supported Italy.

Another renegotiation in the left-right populist program would be of the high-speed rail line proposed between Lyon, France and Turin, Italy that the Italian Republic agreed to.  The rail line has been violently opposed by environmentalists, socialists and anarchists.  

There would no longer be any extra aid to impoverished Southern Italy in the left-right populist program because of all the extra welfare that would be doled out all over Italy. 

The populist program would make vaccinations no longer mandatory.

            There was no mention of any proposed change to the new election law (e.g. awarding a bonus number of seats to the party that wins the most seats, in order to make attaining a majority easier) the elimination of provinces or the proposed bridge between Italy and Sicily.  

           The left-right populist government and program would, because of its slim majority and the fractiousness of the parties, likely be unstable, but yet damaging to Italy.