Nigerien Coup Update: The Junta Promises Transition as ECOWAS Threatens Force

The junta that seized power in Niger in late July has now promised a transition to cilian rule and elections within three years. It overthrew the elected President, whom it is holding under difficult circumstances, along with his family and other government officials. The junta has threatened to prosecute him and to seek the death penalty for treason, as it was dissatisfied with Niger’s fight against an Islamist terrorist insurgency. Although the promise of a democratic transition was sought by the international community, including the United States, which has a small force of troops there to aid Niger against the terrorists, it may not be enough to satisfy the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which has prepared a force and a plan to remove the junta and restore the elected government. Former colonial power France also demands the restoration to power of the elected government and has not withdrawn its troops because it does not recognize the junta as the legitimate government. The junta claims it will not seek help from Kremlin-associated Russian mercenaries with terrible human rights records, as the military coup leaders who took over neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso have done, but the West fears a loss of its last bastion of influence in the Sahel, a strategic battlefield in the War on Terrorism, and a corresponding gain for Russia. The U.S., like the African Union, prefers a diplomatic solution over force. ECOWAS’ standby force may be inadequate, even without any support from Mali and Burkina Faso. They may believe that deterrence of military coups that plague the region, the fight against Islamist insurgents, namely al-Qaeda and its offshoot, the Islamic State, as well as their relations with the West versus Russia are worth the fight to save representative government in Niger.

Foreign Digest: Russia, Nicaragua and Spain

Russia: The Russian Federation’s tyrannical regime of ex-Soviet intelligence officer, Vladimir Putin, has closed the Sakharov Foundation, one of the last centers for the exchange of political ideas. Named for the nuclear scientist and Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov, the center had opened after the fall of the Soviet Union, which Putin wishes to restore. Putin, who has been in power for 23 years, does not permit dissent against him and increasingly does not tolerate independent organizations. Nicaragua: The tyrant of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, continues not only to eliminate all civic organizations, including religious ones, the Red Cross, and even organizations for collectors and the like, but also academic ones, recently taking over a well-regarded Catholic university that was a bastion for freedom of thought. Ortega, now in his presidential fourth term after arresting all opponents ahead of the last election, had been the dictator under the Marxist Sandinista regime that took over Nicaragua in 1979 and ruled until losing a free and fair election it tolerated in 1991. Public protests were put down with violence and over a hundred Nicaraguan supporters of freedom, including some clergy, were forced into exile. Spain: The ruling Socialists managed to win the Spanish parliamentary elections, even though the conservatives won the most votes and seats, after a by-election assured the center-left party of having enough seats to form a coalition majority government with regional parties who won a significant number of seats. Instead of winning an expected majority for their bloc of parties, the conservatives were dragged down by their election alliance with a far-right party that lost seats. Spain is an ally of the United States as a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

The United Nations Condemns the Taliban Regime of Afghanistan for Gross Human Rights Abuses

The United Nations last week on the second anniversary of the Islamist Taliban militia’s seizure of power in Afghanistan has stated that the oppressive terrorist-sponsoring militia has not changed since the last time it ruled Afghanistan. In addition to violating the freedom of expression and assembly, the UN enumerated a list of abuses by the Taliban: violent and discriminatory oppression, forced marriages—even for children, economic and sexual exploitation, the sale of organs and children, forced child labor and human trafficking. I have also posted how the Taliban, who are intertwined with terrorists, have killed many who had worked for the elected Afghan Government. After the United States and its coalition allies withdrew, the Taliban seized power in 2021 after having been removed in 2002 by an international coalition led by the U.S. because the militia had hosted the al-Qaeda terrorists responsible for the September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attacks, the deadliest in history. No State has reocognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.

Another Conservative Think Tank Criticizes the Disastrous Trump-Biden Afghan Withdrawal

In my post about Afghanistan last month, Conservative Think Tank Calls for American Support of the Anti-Taliban Afghan Resistance, https://williamcinfici.blogspot.com/2023/07/conservative-think-tank-calls-for.html, I focused on the call by the Hudson Institute for support of the National Resistance Front, the main Afghan resistance movement against the Islamist Taliban militia that seized power in Afghanistan again in 2020. The Taliban had been overthrown in 2002 by an international coalition led by the United States, and which included the recognized Afghan Government, which had retained de facto control of northeast Afghanistan, where their successors, the National Resistance Front, are also based. The Taliban were overthrown after hosting the Islamist al-Qaeda terrorists responsible for the September 11, 2011 Terrorist Attacks on America that killed a record nearly 3,000 people. But I write to note also that as I did and as the Center for the Foundation for Democracy and other conservatives also have, the Hudson Institute criticized the disastrous Trump-Biden withdrawal for the return of power of the Taliban. They observed that Donald Trump’s negotiations with the Taliban that legitimized the Islamist militia and undermined the elected coalition Afghan Government the U.S. had been supporting, who were excluded from negotiations. Trump’s inartful deal with the Taliban forced an American withdrawal, in exchange for a promise from the terrorist sponsors intertwined with al-Qaeda and affiliated terrorists not to host al-Qaeda again. After taking power, the Taliban hosted al-Qaeda’s leader in Kabul. Trump’s deal barred the Americans from combat against the Taliban and enabled his presidential successor, Joe Biden, who, like Trump, opposed the continued non-combat training mission of a few thousand U.S. troops in Afghanistan, to have an excuse to give up, instead of rejecting Trump’s deal and implementing a policy to defeat the Taliban. Furthermore, Biden had no plan to address the rapid takeover of Afghanistan, which happened despite some American support for the Afghan Government and some valiant efforts by some Afghan forces. His plan to continue to strike terrorists without having a base in Afghanistan did allow the U.S. to kill al-Qaeda’s leader through a missile strike, but only after he had been able to communicate better with his forces and the Taliban for months because of his presence in Afghanistan, and without being able to exploit intelligence from his hideout, as in previous raids, such as the one that killed al-Qaeda’s previous leader. Meanwhile, the Taliban oppress religious and ethnic minorities, do not tolerate basic freedoms, especially for women, and have killed many Afghans who had worked for the Afghan Government.

Nigerien Coup Update

The African Union supports the restoration to power of the elected government of Niger after the military coup two weeks ago I have been posting about and also supports the efforts of the West African Economic Community of States to restore it through diplomatic pressure, but by force, if necessary. ECOWAS has created a stand-by force from several West African States, but of only 5,000 troops. After snubbing ECOWAS and other international envoys and threatening to kill the deposed Nigerien President it is holding, the military junta is finally expressing a willingness for a diplomatic solution. Such a solution would require a transition to civilian power and elections. As I have posted, Niger is the last State in the Sahel battling Islamist terrorists that is backed by Western States. The United States and France have a combined force of over 2,500 troops in Niger and other Western powers have provided aid. But Like Mali and Burkina Faso, after their elected governments were overthrown in military coups, Niger’s junta intends to turn toward Kremlin-associated Russian mercenaries infamous for atrocities, instead of the West, against the jihadists. Those two States in the Sahel back Niger’s junta against ECOWAS, while Guinea, whose leader also took power by coup, is diplomatically supportive of Niger’s junta. The opposition from these West African States undermine ECOWAS’s efforts. Neighboring Algeria opposes the coup, but also opposes an armed intervention. With the split among Africans and the junta’s threat to the elected President, with the conditions for him and his family worsening, and as the sanctions, travel restrictions and power cutoffs from ECOWAS are causing humanitarian problems for Niger, a diplomatic solution appears urgent and more likely to be successful than a military one.

Foreign Digest, Caucasus Region: Nagorno-Karabakh and Georgia

Nagorno-Karabakh: There have recently been renewed tensions over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan that is controlled by ethnic Armenians, who share close ties with nearby Armenia. The Christian Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh and their ally, Armenia, have been fighting off and on with Muslim Azerbaijan since the two former Soviet Republics became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991. A land corridor with Armenia was cut off by the Azeris in fighting three years ago, but now Azerbaijan has even been cutting off supplies from Armenia to the Armenian enclave. The peace deal reached at the time, in which Armenia gave up much of the territory beyond Nagorno-Karabakh it had won in previous fighting, was guaranteed by Russian troops, who have not defended the ethnic Armenians from the Azeris’ supply cutoff. Georgia: The United Staes and five allies on the United Nations Security Council demanded in a joint statement last week that the Russian Federation return control of Georgian territory on the 15th anniversary of its seizure of two breakaway territories of the former Soviet Republic of Georgia in 2008. The Russians established independent puppet states that are hardly recognized internationally, and have kept Russian troops there ever since. The U.S. and its allies note how the Russian invasion of the Caucasus State to its south presaged its aggression against the former Soviet Republic of Ukraine in 2014, in violation of both States’ sovereignty and territorial integrity, which Russia recognized, and as required by the U.N. Charter. The Americans and their allies also note how the Russians have erected barbed wire and other obstacles, unlawfully abducted Georgians, discriminated against ethnic Georgians and target Georgian cultural heritage for damage. The Russians, led by former Soviet intelligence officer, Vladimir Putin, a tyrant who dreams of restoring the Soviet Union, have encroached on Georgian territory by pushing the border forward repeatedly in various locations, adding the territory to their puppet states. The U.S. and its allies call for a peaceful resolution between Russia and Georgia.

Nigerien Coup Update: Russian Machinations in the War on Terrorism Front

I had posted a week ago about the coup in Niger, in which a military junta has seized power from the elected government. Niger, like two other States in the Sahel, Mali and Burkina Faso, has been battling Islamist terrorists, namely, al-Qaeda and its offshoot, the Islamic State, as the region has become a major front in the War on Terrorism. In all three, there were coups by military officers claiming dissatisfaction with their government’s effectiveness against the jihadist insurgencies. Mali and Burkina Faso turned to Kremlin-backed Russian mercenaries, instead of the Western-led support they had been receiving. The mercenaries, who are also present in Libya, the Central African Republic, Syria and Ukraine, commit human rights violations. Although the Russian Federation is calling for a restoration of the elected President, it opposes the use of force by foreigners to restore the elected government. The Nigerien President, who is being held captive by the military junta that seized power last week, has called on the United States and others to help restore him to power, lest the entire Sahel region fall into the hands of Russia, as the coup leaders are expected to spurn U.S. and Western aid and turn to the Russian mercenaries. The U.S. and the European Union oppose the coup and are threatening to cut off aid to Niger. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), of which Niger is a member, has already imposed sanctions and called for the restoration of the elected government of Niger and is threatening to use force to oust the junta. ECOWAS has intervened several times in West Africa after coups or civil wars. Former colonial power France opposes the coup, but politically cannot lead any force that would be labeled by coup supporters as imperialist. The U.S. and the European Union do not intend to act militarily, but prefer ECOWAS to take the lead.