Nigerien Coup Update: The Junta Promises Transition as ECOWAS Threatens Force

The junta that seized power in Niger in late July has now promised a transition to cilian rule and elections within three years. It overthrew the elected President, whom it is holding under difficult circumstances, along with his family and other government officials. The junta has threatened to prosecute him and to seek the death penalty for treason, as it was dissatisfied with Niger’s fight against an Islamist terrorist insurgency. Although the promise of a democratic transition was sought by the international community, including the United States, which has a small force of troops there to aid Niger against the terrorists, it may not be enough to satisfy the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which has prepared a force and a plan to remove the junta and restore the elected government. Former colonial power France also demands the restoration to power of the elected government and has not withdrawn its troops because it does not recognize the junta as the legitimate government. The junta claims it will not seek help from Kremlin-associated Russian mercenaries with terrible human rights records, as the military coup leaders who took over neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso have done, but the West fears a loss of its last bastion of influence in the Sahel, a strategic battlefield in the War on Terrorism, and a corresponding gain for Russia. The U.S., like the African Union, prefers a diplomatic solution over force. ECOWAS’ standby force may be inadequate, even without any support from Mali and Burkina Faso. They may believe that deterrence of military coups that plague the region, the fight against Islamist insurgents, namely al-Qaeda and its offshoot, the Islamic State, as well as their relations with the West versus Russia are worth the fight to save representative government in Niger.