Judging the Bush Legacy: A Historian's View

We historians prefer to wait a few decades in order to pass final judgment on the legacy of a presidency. One reason is that some of his appointees, especially to the federal courts, remain in office long after the president who appointed them has returned to private citizenship. Another reason is that information that might affect our judgement about a president, for good or ill, is contained within the presidential papers that are released, well after a president has left office. Subsequent events also influence our judgment about presidents; the success of a successor in continuing his predecessor's policies influences our judgment about the president who initiated them. Finally, the perspective gained over a number of years always benefits judgment.

Nevertheless, it is possible to consider the legacy of the 43rd President of the United States, George W. Bush, to the extent that we can. I should note that one standard of measure used by many historians is to judge how successful a president was, in terms of carrying out his stated goals, as long as those goals were beneficial.

By this standard, Bush was unusually successful. As a candidate for election, he had announced a relatively high number of major goals that he had promised to pursue: rebuilding the military, implemeting missile defense, cutting taxes and promoting free trade, appointing conservative judges, reform education, and implementing faith-based initiatives and Medicare prescription drug benefits. He was successful in accomplishing all of these goals at least to some degree. The only goal for which he was unable to win congressional suppport was his faith-based initiatives, which he supported by executive order to the extent that he could.

After September 11, Bush promised to keep us safe from terrorists, a goal he also achieved. As a candidate for reelection, he promised Social Security reform, which was the one major campaign goal that he failed to achieve. In his Second Inaugural, Bush emphasized his goal of promoting freedom, which he as also spectacularly successful in accomplishing. But, during his second term, he also promoted comprehensive immigration reform, which he was unable to achieve. However, some of the policies Bush promoted in regard to aliens did increase security and help to decrease illegal immigration. Bush's most significant failure was the goal he had announced during his first term of cutting the federal budget defecit in half.

Although some historians judge presidents negatively if that president did not accomplish some goal that in the historians' personal opinion he should have carried out, I believe that absent negligence, presidents ought to be judged by what they did, especially in terms of whether they did what they promised to do, and not by what they did not do. Thus, for example, I do not judge Bush negatively for any alleged failure in his response for Hurricane Katrina, which is not a federal responsibility, but I give him some credit for the largest and fastest federal response to that catastrophe, which was above and beyond his duty.

Using my standard of judgment instead, we can enumerate all of a president's beneficial or harmful accomplishments, as long as we reserve some judgment about Bush until a sufficient number of years have passed about the full significance of those accomplishments.

Bush improved the overall strength of the military, as well as U.S. intelligence, both of which had been decimated under Bill Clinton, despite the strains of war. Those wars had the benefit of gaining combat, occupation and counterterrorism experience for the U.S. military, as well as restoring its reputation for victory, thanks in part to Bush's politically bold surge strategy in Iraq. The military was strengthened overall, even though Bush achieved a mutual reduction with Russia of nuclear weapons. One of Bush's most significant accomplishments was his implementation of missile defense. U.S. security was enhanced through foreign policy by better counter-terrorism cooperation with foreign states, and the expansion of NATO, as well as better security arrangements with other states.

Along with improvements to the military and an increase in pay for servicemen, Bush increased veterans benefits significantly. For example, he gave veterans something they had sought since the 1890s: concurrent receipt of pensions and disability benefits.

The 43rd President will likely be judged by historians for the War on Terrorism overall, and not just on Iraq. Bush put the United States on a war footing, which marked a transformation from the Clinton policy of treating terrorism as primarily a law enforcement matter. He implemented numerous reforms and signed significant anti-terrorism bills into law. The lack of terrorist attacks on the United States since September 11, 2001 suggests that Bush was more successful than many people, including "the experts," predicted. Despite the critics' charges that he reduced liberty, the abuses were extremely minimal, unlike those committed under the administrations of John Adams, Abraham Lincoln, Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt.

A note on one particular battle of the War on Terrorism, Iraq, is necessary. As in Afghanistan, Bush removed a terrorist-sponsoring regime and thereby liberated 25 million people. Both battles were defeats for al-Qaeda. A major bonus from the Liberation of Iraq was that it allowed for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia, the presence of which were the main gripe of Osama bin Laden. Also, both Iraq's and Libya's weapons of mass destruction were destroyed and the Pakistani nuclear-smuggling ring destroyed.

The improvements in relations with India, a goal announced by Candoleeza Rice before the 2000 election, were particularly noteworthy. Relations also improved with the democratic states of East Asia, including Taiwan, without unnecessarily provoking China. Bush successfully handled the Chinese downing and capture of a U.S. spyplane and its crew with honor in his first significant foreign policy crisis. He was loyal to Israel yet positive toward the Palestinians, and successfully encouraged Syria to withdraw from Lebanon. Although I have seen no other commentator observe the significance of Bush's policy toward Macedonia, I believe that Bush helped avert an imbroglio between Greece and Turkey over that fledgling democratic state by encouraging a just end of its nascent civil war. Bush also supported Georgia, Ukraine and Kosovo, while sanctioning Belarus for oppression. His intervention in Haiti was minimal and brief, yet successful. Bush provided aid to the Cuban democratic opposition, in addition to working to overcoming Cuba's jamming of Radio and TV Marti.

Bush's policy toward Africa has won plaudits even from some of his harshest critics, mostly for his efforts to fight disease there. But he also deserves credit for increasing trade with the Dark Continent, although he imposed sanctions when deserved: on Zimbabwe over its racist policies and to Liberia over blood diamonds. Liberians credit Bush with their country's peace and democracy because of his pro-liberty rhetoric and brief intervention of a small number of American troops. Bush successfully mediated the end to the long, bloody southern Sudanese civil war, while his opposition to Sudan's genocide in Darfur contrasted sharply to Clinton's failure to oppose the genocide in Rwanda. As elsewhere, Bush's anti-terrorism policies and promotion of trade benefited Africa.

The 43rd President improved trade relations with many states around the globe, and won ratification of free trade agreements with more countries than all of his predecessors combined. It is not surprising that exports set records under his administration. Improved trade helped keep inflation down. Yet Bush imposed or strengthened sanctions when necessary, especially on terrorist-sponsoring regimes and organizations.

Tariff reductions are tax cuts, but Bush also championed tax rate cuts, which helped spark a period of prosperity that led to the creation of 8 million jobs, despite his inheritance of an economic downturn and the trillion-dollar shock of the September 11 Attacks. Not only inflation, but also interest rates were low, thanks to Bush's monetary policies.

Bush's energy policies brought increased conservation by the federal government, tax benefits for nculear, clean coal and atlernative energy, increased oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and a broader lifting of the moratorium on off-shore drilling. Access to Libya and Iraq's oil helped prevent further price increases. Unlike Clinton, Bush avoided the temptation to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for economic (read political) reasons. He also avoided overregulation based upon predictions of climate change.

Bush made some modest progress towards deregulation, except for the ill-conceived Sarbanes Oxley Act, and tort reform. His labor policies shifted the U.S. from an anti- to a pro-business position. For example, he allowed competition for federal contracts instead of only awarding them to businesses with labor unions.

Bush appointed conservative judges. Indeed, his Supreme Court appointments may turn out to be the greatest of any modern president.

Bush promoted the right to keep and bear arms, which the Supreme Court affirmed, and terminated a federal gun buy-back program.

The 43rd President was the most successful one thus far at promoting the right to life: he banned funding of abortions as part of foreign policy, banned partial birth abortions and signed the Fetal Homicide bill into law, among other measures. Bush also cracked down on human trafficking and child pornography. His relatively aggressive anti-drug policies contributed to a significant reduction in drug abuse among youth. The Bush Administration also cracked down on organized crime. The Gambino crime family, for example, has been decimated.

Bush's education reforms established the principle of accountability and changed the emphasis from education to learning. His reforms contributed to modest improvements in math and reading test scores among public school students.

Although Bush has not been successful in completely eliminating North Korea's nuclear program, his increase in U.S. and U.N. sanctions on the Hermit Kingdom, his diplomatic pressure through the Six-Party talks and his internationally-aided interdiction on the high seas of North Korean contraband have encouraged North Korea from continuing its program. As with North Korea, judgment in regard to Iran, upon which Bush increased U.S. and U.N. sanctions, will have to be reserved.

The major failure of Bush's presidency was the massive increase in federal debt. However, the increase was in part the necessary price of improving the military and fighting the War on Terrorism. Federal revenues had been depressed by the inherited economic downturn and the September 11-sparked recession, but Bush's pro-growth policies increased revenues and thereby minimized the debt as a percentage of gross domestic product. Bush's giveback of the federal suprlus contributed to that prosperity by freeing up for the American people money that had been hoarded by the federal government.

More disappointing was the increase in the overall size of the federal government because of his education reforms, Medicare prescription drug benefit and return of massive farm subsidies, among other things, without the elimination of many significant federal agencies or programs, as well as an increase in the complexity of the tax code.

Although it is too early to judge Bush's response to the recent fiscal crisis, it appears that his Administration's policies have helped to prevent the recession from becoming a depression. That judgment will depend partially on whether the massive federal interventions are temporary or permanent, let alone successful.

In conclusion, Bush was a highly successful president whose policies were beneficial in many significant ways. If the legacy of the 43rd President is to be reduced to one sentence, it should be that he was the president who launched the War on Terrorism, promoted freedom, implemented missile defense, cut taxes and increased trade, appointed conservative Supreme Court justices, promoted the right to life and improved education. As George W. Bush would put it himself, history will record that he kept his charge.