Cinfici Is Polled by Susquehanna

       
               I was polled by Susquehanna Polling and Research on September 18.  The poll of likely voters suggests the presidential race is a dead heat in Pennsylvania, contrary to other polls.  It also suggests that the contest for the seat of the United States Senate representing the Keystone State is much closer than in other polls.

It was the second recent poll conducted by SP&R showing such a result.  The first was an internal Republican poll, the second one a public one for a media outlet.  Both polls were dismissed by liberals as apparent outliers, but they reflect pollster James Lee’s belief that turnout will not be as high in 2012 as it was in 2008.  It also reflects President Barack Obama’s consistent approval ratings measured by nearly all pollsters below 50% in Pennsylvania and higher Republican enthusiasm in the Commonwealth for casting ballots than that of Democrats.  The Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania cited the internal poll as evidence for why the Romney-Ryan campaign should target their state as a battleground and not abandon it to their opponents, as the liberal media have speculated.  SP&R is a reliable, widely used polling organization.

Despite a Democratic voter registration advantage of 13% – over a million people – Republicans dominated the 2010 Election in Pennsylvania with higher voter turnout and a greater crossover of Democrats voting for Republican candidates than vice versa.  See my post from November of 2010, Pennsylvania Proves the Key State for the GOP, http://williamcinfici.blogspot.com/2010/11/pennsylvania-proves-key-state-for-gop.html.  Indeed, Susquehanna’s poll suggests Obama is trailing in the Democratic western Pennsylvania counties that have been trending Republican in recent years.  They are inhabited by the “bitter clingers,” the western Pennsylvanians Obama insulted during the 2008 presidential campaign as bitterly “clinging” to “religion” or “guns.”  The closer Senate race is reflected in the latest Rasmussen poll and may be the fruit of Republican nominee Tom Smith’s television advertisement campaign.  Smith’s campaign is tying the Democratic incumbent to Obama, which may also be contributing to the erosion of support for the President in the Keystone State.

I have been polled several times over the last few years since before I launched this blog in 2008 in statewide or local races, both in public and internal polls, including by major pollsters.  See my posts: Cinfici Is Polled by Rasmussen Reports, from March of 2010, http://williamcinfici.blogspot.com/2010/03/cinfici-polled-by-rasmussen-reports.html and Cinfici is Polled Again, from October of that year, http://williamcinfici.blogspot.com/2010/10/cinfici-is-polled-again.html.  I do not have great confidence in polls generally, much less for how the media reports them, (See my post from earlier this month, The Media’s Error on the Margin of Error in Polls) but the more scientific polls are, the more credible they are.  I post reports of when I have been polled in order to lend credence to the results.