Analysis of the 2012 General Election across the U.S. and in Pennsylvania

           In my last post, I analyzed the elections for presidential electors across the United States in general.  I shall analyze all the other elections across the Union and the general election in particular in Pennsylvania in this post. 

The 2012 Election in the United States will be remembered largely as a close, status quo election, with little change either in the Executive or Legislative Branches of the federal government or in the states.  Nonetheless, there were some significant conservative consolations.

            Republicans lost only a few seats in the United States House of Representatives, where they retained a relatively large majority, and in the Senate, where they still have a minority robust enough to filibuster Democratic legislation or appointments.  These losses are relatively low for a party that simultaneously loses the presidential election.   In other words, President Barack Obama had few coattails. 

The win by the GOP in the People’s House, is a mandate for not raising taxes and for cutting wasteful spending and restoring the military, which thereby denies Obama a mandate for raising taxes and spending and gutting the military.  The Republican caucus in the Senate, with the retirement or loss of several moderates and the election of several conservatives, will shift rightward.  

            In the States, Republicans gained one governor, in North Carolina, which gives them 30, as well as a few more state legislative chambers across the Union, while holding onto most of the historic state legislative gains the GOP made in the 2010 Election.

            Indeed, wave elections, such as in 2010, include the winning of marginal races that are difficult for a party to defend, which makes the Republican holds in federal and state elections in 2012 significant.

            It is consoling to recognize that far more conservative Republicans hold federal and state office now than after the 2008 presidential election. 

            On ballot questions, despite some high-profile narrow losses for conservatives on a number of referenda in several states on gay marriage or the legalization of marijuana, as well as a few other losses on various issues in other states, there were several conservative victories among the states.  Michigan’s rejection of a referendum to amend the constitution to require collective bargaining and California’s rejection of a referendum to require the labeling of genetically-modified foods were among the most reported, but the Conservative News Service also reports several other wins for the conservative position on ballot questions: voters in Missouri, Oklahoma, Arizona and Washington, as well as in two California cities, approved referenda to limit various tax increases.  Missouri also approved a referendum against the creation of a health insurance exchange under Obama’s federalization of health insurance plan while New Jersey approved pension and health insurance reform for judges, according to CNS.

In Pennsylvania, Republicans lost all five statewide races: for presidential electors, U.S. Senate, and state Attorney General, Treasurer and Auditor.  Most of these losses were fairly close.

            In the campaign for Presidential electors, the Republican ticket of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan lost the popular vote by 5% in Pennsylvania with over a million more registered Democrats than Republicans, instead of the 10% loss by the John McCain and Sara Palin ticket in 2008.  The 2012 GOP ticket lost statewide by less than 284,000 votes.  The Romney-Ryan ticket won the rest of the Commonwealth outside of Philadelphia by well over 180,000 votes. 

The Republican ticket won 54 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, as opposed to 49 by McCain/Palin.  I am proud to report that my county, Berks, was among those that flipped from the Democratic to the Republican ticket, thanks in small part to my local campaign effort.  The GOP ticket made noteworthy gains in the Philadelphia suburbs, where voters found Romney’s business experience and fiscal conservatism appealing, reversing the Democratic trend of the last several elections.  It especially made gains in Democratic southwestern Pennsylvania.  Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County was a single Democratic island in a sea of counties that voted Republican, several of which produced landslides for the Romney-Ryan ticket.  President Barack Obama’s hostility to coal and natural gas, the right to bear arms, moral issues and religious liberty were among the reasons for the GOP gains. 

            The Democratic win in the race for state Attorney General was the first since the office became elective in 1980.  The loss of all three state row offices is unprecedented for either party.  The Democrats also made gains in the state House of Representatives and Senate, but the Republicans retain the majority in both chambers.

            One significant consolation for the Keystone State Republicans was the defeat of an incumbent Democratic U.S. Representative from western Pennsylvania, giving the GOP a 13-5 advantage in the House delegation, up from 12-7 before reapportionment and the 2012 elections, which builds on the gains from the 2010 elections. 

            The 2012 general elections for president and other federal and state offices reflect neither a victory for liberalism nor a defeat for conservatism.   Although the Obama-Biden ticket won and the Democrats made some gains in Congress, voters kept the division of federal government they had created in 2010 and maintained or strengthened Republican rule in the States.