Conservative Analysis of the 2012 Presidential Elections

           In this post, I shall analyze the results of the 2012 elections for presidential and vice presidential electors across the United States.  I shall analyze all the other elections across the Union and the general elections particularly in Pennsylvania in my next post.  The election result was disappointing and disturbing for us conservatives, but there are a number of consolations.

            Compared to 2008, the 2012 popular vote for electors was even closer.  The Democratic ticket of President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden lost ground by every standard: total popular votes, popular margin of victory, States won and Electors.  The Obama-Biden ticket won by less than 4 million votes, which represented a 3% popular vote margin of victory, 25 States and 332 Electors, as opposed to 9.5 million votes, 7% popular vote margin, 28 States and 365 electoral votes.  Indeed, the Democratic ticket won by only around 264,000 votes in four States (Florida, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire).  There was significantly less voter turnout than in 2008 because of a much larger drop in Democratic than Republican turnout.  Republicans gained a share of the votes of “independents” compared to 2008.

            Obama’s victory despite these decreases in popular votes and expected electoral votes are unprecedented for a candidate standing for reelection to a second term without a major third-party candidate on the ballot.  It is also unusual that his party simultaneously lost seats in Congress, meaning he had no coattails.  Thus, the election represented a moral victory for Republicans and means that there is no second-term mandate for Obama, especially when considered along with the Republican retention of its majority in the U.S. House.

The central premise of the liberal Democrats during the election campaign was that Republican policies, especially tax cuts, had caused the recession.  With a few exceptions, like this blog (See especially several of my posts shortly before the election), conservatives and Republicans hardly rebutted this oft-repeated claim, both during the end of the Bush Administration and throughout entire Obama Administration, even during the election. As a result, voters blamed the policies of former Republican President George W. Bush not only for causing the recession, but even for the continued economic weakness over the last four years more than they blamed the policies of Obama.  They gave the current President credit for the weak recovery which they optimistically expected to improve. 

Although the economy remains weak, it is not in the state of depression.  Eight percent unemployment means that 92% of the workforce is employed.  However, many have given up looking for work and do not count as part of the workforce while many others are underemployed.  Other major employment problems are the number of chronically unemployed and slow job growth.  The economy has also suffered from the loss of homeownership of many and the decrease in the value of the homes of everyone else.  As I have posted, Obama’s policies have not been helpful.

The difference in 2012 with the 1980 election when Republican Ronald Reagan defeated incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter, however, was that there was also high inflation at that time, which affected more people more adversely than now.  Moreover, there was a sense of “malaise” because Carter argued that Americans should accept decline.  He seemed unwilling or unable to provide hope for improvement.  By contrast, Obama followed the optimistic Reagan model that every presidential nominee of either party has since followed of arguing that the American economy could get better.  Obama also specifically argued that the economy would improve with his policies, whereas it would not by returning to Republican policies.  Furthermore, the overwhelming majority of the unemployed voted for Obama at least in part because of his extension of unemployment compensation.  Therefore, the higher the unemployment rate, the more votes of unemployed workers Obama would have won, notwithstanding any loss of votes of those who might blame him for higher unemployment. 

Conservatives see people as individuals; liberals seem them as members of constituencies.  As with the poor and the unemployed, and even the middle class, the Democratic campaign followed a campaign strategy of grouping people into constituencies, such as women, blacks, Hispanics, students and gays.  Many in these groups fell into the trap of being condescended to by voting for the candidate that pandered to their constituency, thereby suggesting that people do not think as individuals and reinforcing stereotypes about people based upon what group to which they belong.  Nevertheless, I disagree with the argument that the election suggests the demographics have shifted against the Republicans in regard to the population growth of Hispanics because they are not monolithic.  For example, Cubans vote Republican, while immigration is not an issue for Puerto Ricans, who are not immigrants, but American citizens.  Hispanics are generally pro-life and often establish small businesses, which makes them a natural constituency for conservative Republicans.

I also am not as certain as other disheartened conservatives that the tipping point has been reached whereby more voters receive money from the federal government than pay income taxes, which makes the majority willing to elect candidates who would increase income taxes on the minority who pays them.  Some of the 47% who currently do not pay a net amount of federal income taxes (in addition to various other federal taxes that nearly everyone pays) are veterans who receive benefits they earned, not “takers.”  Others are retirees or disabled people on Social Security or on Medicare who paid taxes on them on what is presented as a pension/disability insurance program.  They do not think of themselves as takers and disagree with raising taxes on “the makers.”  Even some of the others among the 47% disagree, too, because they aspire to be wealthy instead of opposing the rich out of envy or because they understand basic fiscal and economic matters or at least have common sense.  Nevertheless, the disturbing trend toward a minority paying income taxes is becoming increasingly dangerous for the Republic, as is as the bribing of constituencies through government largesse.

            Another factor in the election result was that Obama appeared slightly more likable and significantly more understanding and compassionate than the Republican nominee Mitt Romney, whom the Democratic campaign demonized with ad hominem arguments, even though these factors are irrelevant in choosing a Chief Executive of a limited federal Republic and Commander in Chief whom few Americans will ever have to work with personally.  Among other factors was the nomination by the Republicans of a candidate whose moderate record, despite his campaign as a conservative, failed to inspire enough conservatives to vote for him, as well as even more documented liberal media bias than usual and numerous election irregularities.  Yet the election was still close.

            Some of the factors in the Obama-Biden win were unique.  For example, the black vote for the Democratic nominee the last two elections for presidential electors was even higher than usual.  There was also the historic factor for other voters that weighed against voting to fire the first black president.  Obama lacked a comprehensive second term platform.  Although it was politically a disadvantage in not inspiring confidence, it was an advantage for him politically in not having to defend a position.  The next Democratic presidential nominee will be expected to have a platform in order to be elected Chief Executive. 

The lack of much of a platform is another reason Obama lacks a mandate.  Few liberal ideas were accepted by the voters, other than the one about taxes, while the Democrats effectively used several conservative arguments that I shall discuss in another upcoming post.

Indeed, Romney’s win of the first candidate debate suggests the conservative message was not rejected by the voters.  Some of his specific proposals are still under consideration by both parties in Congress.  Conservatives may have lost, but conservatism did not lose.