Radical Threats from All Directions in the Italian Parliamentary Elections

           The Italian parliamentary elections on Sunday, March 4 are of interest because the politics are particularly unusual and there is a risk from radical parties, favored by the Russian Federation, to Italy, which is one of the major European states, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and an ally of the United States in the War on Terrorism.

            Usually in parliamentary states, a leader of a political party is the party’s candidate for prime minister, but none of the leaders of the three major Italian parties in this election are necessarily candidates for premier. The leading party of the leading bloc, according to public opinion polls, has not even announced its candidate.

            The Italian Republic is currently governed by a center-left/center-right coalition, with the center-left party as the senior partner.  The outgoing liberal Prime Minister, who heads a caretaker executive, had taken office after the resignation of his predecessor, Matteo Renzi, who had become premier after succeeding the previous premier as party leader.  Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni has faced relatively little criticism, except from the Left, as his Government continued various reforms and cut taxes while the Italian economy recovers, although only weakly.  The migrant crisis has eased because of support from the European Union and Italy’s missions to Africa to reduce human smuggling.  The Premier is a candidate for Parliament, but not necessarily for Prime Minister, as Renzi remains the party leader, and would more likely be premier if his party wins the elections, although Gentiloni could again be Prime Minister, depending on the preference of the party’s Members of Parliament.  Renzi, the Tony Blair of Italy, has transformed the former Communist Party to a center-left party, which has caused a leftwing faction to break away and form their own party.  The ruling liberal party is running on a platform of defending its reforms, cutting more taxes and of being pro-European.  They are third in the polls, slightly behind the populists.

            In addition to the anti-reform left wing breakaway party, there is a radical far-left party participating in the elections.  Votes for these smaller parties, instead of the larger center-left party, could help the other two major parties obtain a plurality of seats in the Parliament.

            The small center-right junior coalition partner succeeded in pulling the Government somewhat rightward, but its leader is not a candidate for premier or parliament, while its small centrist party ally, which has also been supporting the Government, has joined the right-wing bloc.  The centrists had been kingmakers in former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s second government.      

The centrists, Berlusconi’s center-right party, a smaller more conservative party and the far-right xenophobic Northern League compose the right-wing bloc.

            Berlusconi is prohibited from standing for Prime Minister because of a fraud conviction.  He is appealing the ruling to the European Union, but no decision is expected before the election.  The tycoon and three-time Premier has floated names as possibilities for premier if his conservative party wins the most seats, particularly European Parliament President Antonio Tajani, but not officially named a candidate for Prime Minister.

            The Northern League refers to itself simply as the “League” to prove it has changed from supporting separatism, which had been based upon resentment against funds for Southern Italy, to federalism (devolving more powers from the national government to Italy’s Regions) in order to appeal to Southern Italians, but the characteristic bigotry remains.  It is led by an uncouth, bombastic Donald Trump admirer who is opposed to immigration and wants to deport immigrants, migrants and refugees, despite the lessening of the migrant crisis and the fact that most migrants do not remain in Italy, but only use it as a transit to Northern Europe, and despite a decline in population among native Italians.  The elections are taking place during a disturbing rise in fascist and anti-immigrant violence and other provocative incidents. 

            The right-wing bloc’s platform is more tax cuts (eliminating them on first homes, cars, inheritance, gifts and savings), amending the recent pension reform, improvements to infrastructure (especially for the South), and opposition to immigration.  However, the bloc is fractious, as Berlusconi’s third government was, with the League as junior partner.  The party leaders have agreed that the leader of whichever party receives the most votes would be Prime Minister, if the bloc obtains a majority.  It enjoys a significant lead in the polls, but well short of a majority.  Berlusconi’s conservatives and the Northern League are close in the polls, with only a slight lead for the former.  Neither party could likely win a plurality of seats in Parliament without the other.

            The populists, who had been the second largest party in the Parliament, are currently second in the polls, and thus they are the most preferred single party.  Their leader is prohibited from holding office because of a manslaughter conviction.  They have put forward an unusually young candidate for Prime Minister.  The populists are anti-establishment and anti-corruption, but have been plagued by scandals and internal divisions.  They would have to obtain a majority on their own to form a government, as they will not govern with any other party. 

            Both the Northern League and the populists are Eurosceptic, Pro-Russian and anti-vaccine.  The danger of either radical party winning the elections is a cause of concern to Italians and Europeans. 

            The parliamentary elections are being conducted under the new election law.  A certain number of candidates are elected directly, the remainder proportionately.  Parties must reach a threshold to obtain seats of at least 3% of the vote, if they are within a bloc that wins at least 10% of the vote.  Unlike under the previous election law, a party does not receive a bonus for winning the most seats.  As no bloc or party is likely to win a majority, which would be necessary to obtain a vote of confidence to form a government, and because another grand coalition between the center-left and the center-right is not expected, a revote is likely.  

           Nonetheless, the elections are more than a test run, but an opportunity for validation and momentum for any party or bloc that can win a plurality of seats.  They are also an opportunity for Italians to reject the anti-establishment populists and the other radical parties on the far-left and the far-right and express a preference for reasonable leadership to continue the reforms it must make to reduce its public debt and to prosper more fully.