Although the results of the 2018 General Election in Pennsylvania have not
yet been certified, as the unusually large number of paper ballots have not yet
been counted, an accurate analysis of the results may be done already because
the final outcome will not alter the general observations I am making.
Democrats
were overall winners in the Keystone
State, although the
results generally did not alter the status quo in terms of control of state
Branches of Government. The Democratic Governor
was easily re-elected and Democrats made relatively large gains in both houses
of the General Assembly, although the Republicans maintain a significant
majority, as they were nonetheless victorious in a majority of contests for the
House of Representatives and despite suffering several losses among the half of
the seats of the Senate on the ballot.
The Governor’s tax and spend policies had mostly been thwarted by the
GOP-led General Assembly, thereby victimizing the Republican Party by its own
success in terms of popular approval of the Governor. The memory of earlier budget delays had faded
by this year, after an on-time budget approval this year for the Commonwealth.
For federal
offices in Pennsylvania,
Democrats won the only statewide contest, for United States Senate, with the
re-election of the incumbent over a Trumpist.
They also picked up three seats in Pennsylvania’s delegation to the U.S. House
of Representatives. Since last year’s
special election, the composition of the House delegation has changed from 13-5
in favor of the Republicans to an even 9-9 split. These Democratic increases were minimal,
however, considering the redistricting by the Democratic-led state Supreme
Court.
Up and down
the ballot, Democratic gains were mostly concentrated in southeastern Pennsylvania. There were some Republican ones elsewhere. The trend of suburban Philadelphia
toward the Democrats and suburban Pittsburgh and
southwestern Pennsylvania
toward the Republicans continues.
Donald Trump
was a major factor in the Republicans’ electoral defeat in Pennsylvania.
There was
one noteworthy exception in the southeast to the Democratic tide there that was
especially because of the Trump factor: U.S. Representative Brian Fitzpatrick,
who campaigned as an independent anti-Trump Republican and had a record of
statements and bi-partisan legislative activity to back up his message, was
re-elected.