Conservative Analysis of the 2018 Pennsylvania General Election

           Although the results of the 2018 General Election in Pennsylvania have not yet been certified, as the unusually large number of paper ballots have not yet been counted, an accurate analysis of the results may be done already because the final outcome will not alter the general observations I am making.

            Democrats were overall winners in the Keystone State, although the results generally did not alter the status quo in terms of control of state Branches of Government.  The Democratic Governor was easily re-elected and Democrats made relatively large gains in both houses of the General Assembly, although the Republicans maintain a significant majority, as they were nonetheless victorious in a majority of contests for the House of Representatives and despite suffering several losses among the half of the seats of the Senate on the ballot.  The Governor’s tax and spend policies had mostly been thwarted by the GOP-led General Assembly, thereby victimizing the Republican Party by its own success in terms of popular approval of the Governor.  The memory of earlier budget delays had faded by this year, after an on-time budget approval this year for the Commonwealth.

            For federal offices in Pennsylvania, Democrats won the only statewide contest, for United States Senate, with the re-election of the incumbent over a Trumpist.  They also picked up three seats in Pennsylvania’s delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives.  Since last year’s special election, the composition of the House delegation has changed from 13-5 in favor of the Republicans to an even 9-9 split.  These Democratic increases were minimal, however, considering the redistricting by the Democratic-led state Supreme Court.

            Up and down the ballot, Democratic gains were mostly concentrated in southeastern Pennsylvania.  There were some Republican ones elsewhere.  The trend of suburban Philadelphia toward the Democrats and suburban Pittsburgh and southwestern Pennsylvania toward the Republicans continues.

            Donald Trump was a major factor in the Republicans’ electoral defeat in Pennsylvania.

           There was one noteworthy exception in the southeast to the Democratic tide there that was especially because of the Trump factor: U.S. Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, who campaigned as an independent anti-Trump Republican and had a record of statements and bi-partisan legislative activity to back up his message, was re-elected.