Thursday, March 28, 2019

Update: Latest Developments on the United Kingdom Leaving the European Union


           The United Kingdom asked last week for a delay of a few months of its departure from the European Union, currently scheduled for March 29, under EU rules and based upon the timing of the British request for leaving after the June 2016 referendum result in favor of exiting the EU. 

            Parliament seized control of the voting agenda through the passage of a motion and is considering a range of alternative options, from not leaving the EU to leaving with a customs union or some arrangement like certain non-EU member have with the EU to leaving without a deal.

The Conservative Prime Minister, Theresa May, who rules in coalition with a small Unionist Northern Irish party, had negotiated a deal over the last two years with the EU to leave the organization, but Parliament has twice rejected it overwhelmingly over the last few months.  Without an agreement, the UK would leave the EU without any deal, including any trade relations or customs agreement, an arrangement for British expatriates in EU States or EU expatriates in the UK, a fishing agreement, or a border with Northern Ireland or one between Gibraltar and Spain.  An agreement for an indefinite delay of the implementation of the Irish border is the most controversial part of the deal, especially with the junior coalition partner.  A lack of a border is an essential component of the Northern Ireland peace accords, but an exit from the EU would necessitate one, for which there is currently no infrastructure, let alone an agreement for the movement of peoples.  The UK has obtained some clarifications from the EU on the interpretation of the provision and its timing, but the indefinite nature of it remains.  The EU has refused to renegotiate its deal with the UK.  May insists her deal is the best option, one that remains faithful to the referendum to leave the EU.

All 27 of the other members of the EU must agree to the delay for it to be granted.  There is willingness for a delay of various lengths, complicated by the deadline for British participation in EU parliamentary elections, but some States are insisting on the condition of British Parliamentary approval of the deal first.  Approval remains uncertain.

In the UK, massive protests and popular petitions in favor of remaining in the EU have been made, but the British Government is rejecting remaining in the EU, in accordance with the referendum and Parliament’s subsequent ratification of it.  There were also anti-leave protests in Spain last week.

The EU, which created a free trade zone and allowed the free movement of peoples internally, gradually evolved into a transnational government.  The UK, which had opted not to join its common currency, negotiated a deal under Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron with the EU to claw back some of its sovereignty, but the referendum to leave was approved instead.  

The UK and member EU States have been making contingency plans for a British exit without any deal.  

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