Analysis of Recent Foreign Elections

The recent elections for European Parliament represented a general shift toward conservative parties, including some Euroskeptic (those opposed to greater European integration) ones. It is a harbinger for the impending loss of power of the Labour Party in the United Kingdom and victory for the Conservative Party.

Some of the parties that gained seats were labeled “far-right” by the media, even though they are fascist (national socialist), which makes them far-left. At least one of the parties that the media labeled “anti-Islamic” was not, namely the one led by Geert Wilders of the Netherlands, which is anti-Islamist (meaning it is against Islamic militancy), but not necessarily anti-Muslim.

Some in the media have blamed the loss by liberal and socialist parties in these elections on the economy. The fact that leftists were blamed in those foreign states for the recession abroad is inconsistent with the blame by the left in the United States for conservatives for the recession. Indeed, the general anti-incumbent trend during this decade suggests that the recession was not so much caused by government policy at all, especially not conservative policies, but by external forces. The blame by liberals of American conservatives for deregulatory policies is inconsistent with the worse economic downturn being experienced in those European quasi-socialist states with even more regulation. The natural boom and bust cycle seems more to blame for the recession: the global prosperity of the 2000s led to higher energy demand, which led to higher energy prices, which led to higher interest rates, which caused the housing bubble to burst. If government policies played any role in causing the recession, it was excessive regulatory policies, such as the Carter and Clinton Administration policies of encouraging risky lending to home buyers that only contributed to the problem, not insufficient regulation.

There has been a general anti-incumbent trend in the West since a few years after the War on Terrorism, which is to say, well before the global recession, which has become even more noticeable since. It is noteworthy, therefore, that conservatives gained seats in the European Parliament even in states like France and Italy that were led by relatively new conservative governments. The anti-incumbent trend has been noticeable the last few years beyond the West, as well. One of the most noticeable exceptions has been Iraq, which underscores public contentment there with improved security and a rejection of Islamist terrorism.

Incumbent parties also won in two other states recently, India and Lebanon. India’s elections were understandable because it has enjoyed strong economic growth, albeit unevenly. The election victory of the pro-Western coalition in Lebanon despite the strong challenge from the Hezbollah-led coalition is highly significant to the War on Terrorism. A win by the Iranian-backed Shi’ite terrorist Hezbollah would have necessitated a cut-off of most U.S. aid to the fledgling representative democracy and possibly led to a second war with Israel, or at least complicated efforts toward an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord. Sunni Muslims were joined with some Christians and others over the Shi’ite Muslims, who had attracted a bloc of Christians to their coalition. The Lebanese people thereby asserted their independence from Syria, which also backs Hezbollah, the main power-broker in the Land of the Cedars. They also demonstrated that representative democracy has spread beyond Iraq in the Arab world.