Analysis of the Syrian Chemical Weapons Deal

Syria’s agreement to give up its chemical weapons arsenal avoided a likely military strike by the United States and other Western powers.  The United Nations inspections requirements in the deal appear to have been effective thus far, as the known Syrian stockpile of weapons of mass destruction is being dismantled. 

The deal must have been preferable for Bashar Assad’s tyrannical regime to the alternative of taking its chances absorbing military strikes.  Therefore, the Americans and others can at least convincingly make the case that its threats successfully resulted in Syria’s abandonment of its chemical weapons, but Russia appears to have gained diplomatic prestige at the expense of the West by brokering the last-minute deal.  Of course, the possibility that Syria will cheat on the deal remains a concern, especially given the despot’s acceptance of the deal, although it would again place itself at risk of being struck by the West if it were caught using them against civilians again.

However, Syria suffered no military punishment for using its WMDs against civilians, although tough economic sanctions on the Alawite-led Baathist dictatorship will continue and aid to the rebels has increased, including direct American military aid to the rebels identifiable as non-Islamist.  Meanwhile, Assad’s regime is allowed continue to kill civilians by indiscriminately killing them with conventional weapons.  

I had posted three times on the Syrian civil war in August to September, which I shall summarize and update here.  The two-year war has claimed over a hundred thousand lives as Syrians have rebelled against Assad’s longtime dictatorship.  The conflict has attracted the participation of Islamists, both from Syria and abroad, who have clashed with the other Syrian rebels, thereby complicating the rebellion’s strategy, as well as making aid efforts by foreign governments to the rebels difficult because of concerns about doing anything to the benefit of jihadists such as al-Qaeda.  Although the terrorist-versus-terrorist fighting is helpful in the overall War on Terrorism, the opportunity to remove a state sponsor of terrorism and deprive Iran of an ally is being jeopardized by the complication.  The war has spilled over into several volatile neighboring states, as have millions of refugees, who risk destabilizing Jordan particularly, as far as to Italy.  In the best interests of Syria and the world, increased aid to the non-Islamist rebels is urgently needed to bring the conflict to a peaceful and just end as quickly as possible without a victory by either side of the terrorists that can allow the Syrian people to determine their own destiny.