Conservative Analysis of the 2013 Elections

           The results of the 2013 Elections were mixed, but nonetheless some trends can be discerned and some lessons drawn.

            In Virginia, the conservative Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli lost a close race for Governor.  He nearly pulled off an upset over his liberal Democratic opponent, who, as a former Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, was far better funded.  The Democrat won with a plurality, not a majority of the votes, as a Libertarian candidate won several percentage points worth of votes.  Cucinelli had led the States’ lawsuit against the federalization of health insurance passed by a liberal Democratic United States Congress and signed into law by liberal Democratic President Barack Obama.  The suit was partly successful in some respects, but was unsuccessful in getting the individual insurance mandate unconstitutional.  The recent disastrous implementation of the mandate and its resultant cancellation of many insurance plans that people wished to keep, as Obama had promised they could, was the main reason for the underperformance of the Democratic candidate, as Cucinelli made the election a referendum on the plan, which was also opposed by the Libertarian gubernatorial nominee.  Virginia limits its Chief Executive to a single four-year term.  The Democratic nominee will succeed a Republican Governor, Bob McDonnell, who was successful in balancing the budget and cutting taxes, meaning that Virginians were not rejecting conservative government based upon the record of the incumbent.  Meanwhile in the Old Dominion, the GOP held onto the office of Attorney General by electing a Republican to succeed its gubernatorial nominee, but Democrats picked up a seat in the legislature, which was enough to deprive the Republicans of a veto-proof two-thirds majority.  The Republican Delegates will still easily be able to block the most liberal proposals of the next Governor.

            Governor Chris Christie was re-elected in a landslide that was unprecedented for a Republican in New Jersey, where Democrats enjoy a significant voter registration advantage and where Democrats have dominated statewide elections this century.  Although regarded as a moderate conservative, he generally performed in office and campaigned as a conservative, although with a bipartisan tone that reflected his success in obtaining common ground with members of the Democratic majority in the legislature.  Christie overcame labor union resistance to balance New Jersey’s budget without raising taxes.  He was also credited for his leadership in dealing with Superstorm Sandy and for advocating successfully for the Garden State’s share of federal disaster funds.  Christie did have some coattails – albeit short ones – as the Republicans gained a small number of legislative seats, leaving them slightly less in the minority than before. 

            As expected, Democrats won various races for mayor across the Union, including in New York City for the first time since 1989, despite their overwhelming voter registration advantage.  However, a Republican won the only statewide election in Pennsylvania, for Superior Court, despite a large Democratic voter registration in the Keystone State.  There were few referenda of particular interest to conservatives, except one for “gay marriage” that won in liberal Illinois.

            The liberal media and other commentators claim the 2013 Elections prove that the only Republican who can win is a moderate like Christie, but the results suggested that there was no trend of voter rejection of conservatism in either New Jersey or Virginia.  The voters in both States apparently were willing to reward competence and punish incompetence, as Christie easily won because of his effective conservative record while a majority of Virginians voted against the Democratic gubernatorial nominee because of the incompetence of Obama’s federalization of health insurance and other objections to the plan. 

           The results also suggest that whatever blame voters may have assigned to Republicans in Congress for the recent partial federal government shutdown that occurred when the Democratic-led Senate rejected the Republican-led House of Representatives plans to fund the government without providing funds for the federalization of health insurance, voters do not necessarily blame other Republicans, but their frustration with the Democrats over health insurance is discouraging them from voting for other Democratic candidates.  In fact, now that the health insurance plan is being implemented, perhaps voters who were originally upset with the Republicans in Congress are beginning to understand why the GOP insisted on de-funding the plan.