The meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was somewhat successful. The U.S. was able to get some NATO allies to send 5,000 more police and soldiers, including some combat troops, to Afghanistan, although the figure represents only about half of what Barak Obama sought. Danish Prime Minister Rasmussen, a staunch ally in the War on Terrorism, was unanimously elected the new NATO Secretary by the 28 members, including new members Albania and Croatia. NATO's door remains open to more new members.
However, NATO restored its relationship with Russia, which had been broken last Summer after Russia invaded Georgia, a prospective NATO member that enjoys a partnership with the alliance. In other words, despite all of the Western condemnation of Russia for its aggression against a NATO ally, the Bear has mostly gotten away essentially unpunished with its bad behavior. To its credit, the West has given some support for Georgia, but it will be difficult to reverse the secession of its two breakaway republics, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which likely will be absorbed eventually into the Russian empire.
Russia's leverage over Europe, which comes from its exportation of oil, combined with European tendencies to appease, means that Russian aggression will have paid off. Although a weakened Georgia may remain a pro-Western democratic state, Russia will gain influence and even territory, while Moscow has sent the clear message to former Soviet Republics in its "Near Abroad" that it will not tolerate pro-Western tendencies. Vladimir Putin's autocratic rule in Russia has proven itself strong, which appeals domestically to Russian nationalism.
An Olympics is planned for the Black Sea port of Sochi, just a few miles from Georgian territory occupied by Russian troops. It would be an insult to sovereignty and the principle of self-determination if the West did not boycott the games. But judging from NATO's current tolerance of Russian aggression, it appears likely that the West will not risk irking the Bear.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
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